Virginia vs Louisville

Virginia’s three-game win streak and 4-1 form over its last five, built on an 85.1 points-per-game offense and tightening defense, make the Cavaliers an appealing plus-money shot even in Louisville’s 9-1 fortress at the Yum! Center. Louisville has steadied with a win over Boston College but is just 3-2 in its last five and has already stumbled at home against Duke, while its backcourt could be compromised if leading scorer Ryan Conwell and primary creator Mikel Brown Jr. remain less than 100 percent, compared with Virginia potentially getting elite shooter Jacari White back from a wrist issue. The matchup also leans UVA’s way historically, with the Cavaliers up 24-7 in the series and having claimed eight of the last 11 in this building, and their core of Thijs De Ridder, Dallin Hall, and Malik Thomas is in rhythm after handling Stanford comfortably. With Louisville still the deserved favorite, the underdog moneyline remains a medium-aggression play rather than a full-on hammer, but the combination of current form, injury news, and matchup history supports a B+ grade on Virginia at a plus-money price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:40

Louisville’s up-tempo attack and heavy three-point volume run straight into a Virginia team that, despite its new 85-plus points-per-game identity under Ryan Odom, still sits in the bottom third nationally in tempo and has seen five of its last six finish below the total, while Louisville’s last three have also cashed Under. The historical matchup leans heavily to lower scores—each of the last 10 meetings has stayed under 150 points, averaging just 124.8—suggesting that when these programs share the floor, pace and shot quality tend to grind down totals no matter who has the hotter offense coming in. Both sides bring 9-7 Under records into a game where injuries to key guards (Conwell and Brown for Louisville, Jacari White for Virginia) introduce more downside to offensive efficiency than upside, and at least one advanced model projects around 152 combined points with the Under hitting in roughly 60% of simulations. Given the convergence of recent Under streaks, series history, and potential backcourt limitations, a play on Under 154.5 at standard -110 juice earns an A- grade for both likelihood and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:40

Thijs De Ridder’s emergence as Virginia’s leading scorer, combined with the Cavaliers’ 9-5-2 ATS mark and three straight double-digit wins, makes taking the full +3.5 particularly attractive against a Louisville team that’s just 3-2 in its last five, has cooled against stronger opponents, and is dealing with uncertainty around primary guards Conwell and Brown. Virginia has travelled well at 4-2 away from home and 2-1 in true road games, while Louisville’s impressive 9-1 home record has come with recent ATS slippage and a tendency to turn it over against pressure—exactly where Virginia’s aggressive press and deep guard rotation featuring Hall, Mallory, Lewis, and Thomas can exploit cracks. With consensus markets hanging Louisville -3.5 at roughly -110 and several projection systems seeing a one- or two-possession game, the cushion of more than one full possession on a battle-tested underdog that has historically thrived in this building (eight wins in the last 11 trips) pushes Virginia +3.5 into the top-value tier with an A-grade recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:40