South Florida vs Alabama

Alabama’s 7-3 start includes a fresh 96-75 reality check from No. 1 Arizona that snapped the Tide’s momentum, while South Florida rides a two-game win streak into Tuscaloosa at 6-4 with growing confidence. With Labaron Philon Jr. driving a top-end offense (over 21 points and five assists per night) alongside Aden Holloway and versatile freshman Amari Allen, Alabama’s scoring punch and depth are on another tier, especially at home where they’re 3-1 and routinely pushing into the 90s. South Florida counters with Joseph Pinion’s perimeter scoring and Izaiyah Nelson’s work on the glass, but even with the Bulls healthy and Alabama still managing minor knocks to rotation pieces like Holloway, Taylor Bol Bowen and Keitenn Bristow, the overall talent gap plus a difficult SEC road environment makes an outright USF upset a long shot. I’m backing Alabama on the moneyline at -1250 as a B-grade pick—very likely to cash but with limited standalone value unless used as a parlay anchor. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:40am

South Florida’s two-game surge has featured improved rebounding and timely scoring from Pinion and Nelson, while Alabama comes off that lopsided loss to Arizona intent on shoring up defensive lapses and cleaning the glass after being battered inside. Season-long profiles still scream offense—Alabama averaging about 93.1 points and South Florida 88.6—but their combined scoring and allowance numbers put typical totals closer to the low 180s, meaning a 183 line is already leaning into an extreme, full-tilt tempo game. With Alabama laying 14.5 at home, a common script has the Tide building a solid lead behind Philon and Holloway, then throttling back late and leaning on depth—especially with several Crimson Tide forwards recently nursing minor injuries and USF lacking any major listed absences—creating extra paths to a slightly slower final few minutes than the number implies. I’m siding with the Under 183 at -110 as a B- pick: there’s some value if Alabama’s defense responds and the Bulls’ half-court sets chew clock, but the combination of pace and three-point volume still introduces real volatility. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:40am

Joseph Pinion and South Florida arrive on a two-game win streak and a 6-4 overall record, while Alabama is trying to bounce back from that 21-point defeat to Arizona and a recent stretch that has exposed the Tide’s defensive rebounding and physicality issues. Alabama’s ceiling is clearly higher—Philon’s 21.7 points per game, Allen’s energy on the glass and a rotation averaging over 93 points with nearly 48 boards per night—yet South Florida’s 88.6 points per game, strong offensive rebounding led by Nelson and Collins, and clean injury sheet give the Bulls enough offensive pop to threaten the backdoor if they value possessions and avoid being overwhelmed early by Coleman Coliseum’s energy. On the other side, Alabama still has several rotation pieces recently banged up, and with this the first matchup in a new three-game series between programs whose current rosters lack real head-to-head history, there’s a decent chance Nate Oats spreads minutes if the Tide get comfortable rather than chasing a statement margin. I’ll take South Florida +14.5 at -110 as a C+ pick—respecting Alabama’s ability to turn this into a blowout, but giving the Bulls a slightly better-than-market shot to sneak inside the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/12/2025 09:40am