North Carolina vs California

North Carolina’s 14-3 group rolls into Berkeley having gone 3-2 over its last five while leaking points, but it still faces a Cal team that has slid to 1-4 in its past five, including double-digit losses to Virginia and Duke and a narrow setback at Virginia Tech. With the Tar Heels essentially healthy outside reserve seven-footer Ivan Matlekovic being ruled out and freshman guard Isaiah Denis listed as probable, their core rotation of Caleb Wilson, Henri Veesaar, Seth Trimble, Jarin Stevenson and Kyan Evans is intact, whereas Cal’s depth is a bit thinner with rotation forwards Sammie Yeanay and Rytis Petraitis plus guard Jovani Ruff recently tagged as questionable. This matchup leans heavily on star power and size: Wilson and Veesaar headline an 82-points-per-game offense, while Cal leans on its explosive backcourt of Dai Dai Ames and Justin Pippen plus wings Chris Bell and John Camden, but the Bears’ current three-game slide and recent offensive clunkers against elite defenses suggest they’re more vulnerable than their 13-5 record alone indicates. North Carolina also carries the psychological edge after last season’s 79-53 demolition of Cal and still has multiple returning frontcourt pieces from that rout, and when you pair that interior advantage with the Tar Heels’ superior rebounding and overall scoring margin, the favorite status is deserved even on the road. I grade North Carolina -275 on the moneyline an A- pick for likelihood (given how often they’ve cashed as a favorite this year) but only middling standalone value unless used in parlays due to the heavy juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:11

Cal’s backcourt of Ames and Pippen has gone cold during the Bears’ 1-4 skid, but this is still a 78.5-points-per-game offense now returning home after being held to 60 or fewer in two of its last three, while North Carolina’s 82.2 points per night and recent stretch of conceding around 90 in two of its last three have produced a string of overs. The main injury note here is UNC’s loss of backup rim protector Ivan Matlekovic, which nudges the Tar Heels toward more small-ball and potentially even faster tempo, whereas Cal’s questionable depth pieces are largely role players whose absence would simply condense minutes for their primary scorers rather than slow things down. Key matchup pieces on both sides skew offensive: Wilson and Veesaar can punish Cal inside and draw fouls, Trimble and Evans push pace in transition, and on the other side Ames, Pippen, Bell and Camden all average double figures and collectively take a heavy volume of threes, which is exactly where UNC’s defense has been most vulnerable lately. With the total sitting at 151.5, that number still trails the teams’ combined scoring average by nearly 10 points, and in a spot where Cal will be desperate to stop its losing streak and UNC’s recent defensive woes encourage shot-happy possessions from both backcourts, this projects as more of a 40-minute track meet than a grind. I grade Over 151.5 at -110 as a B pick: the offensive indicators and matchup edges lean to a high-scoring game, but Cal’s recent clunkers against top defenses and the variance inherent in three-point-heavy profiles keep it just shy of A-level confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:11

Caleb Wilson’s matchup against Cal’s front line is the fulcrum for the spread, as North Carolina brings a 14-3 record and three wins in its last five into Haas Pavilion, while the Bears have dropped four of five with two of those defeats coming by double digits and the lone win requiring late-game heroics against Notre Dame. From an availability standpoint, UNC should again be without reserve center Ivan Matlekovic while Denis is expected to go, leaving its core nine-man rotation intact, whereas Cal’s frontcourt and wing depth could be dinged if Yeanay, Petraitis or Ruff are limited, and that matters against a Tar Heel team already owning a size and rebounding advantage. The key player history also tilts slightly North Carolina’s way: returning bigs like Wilson, Veesaar and Stevenson come out of a frontcourt that overwhelmed Cal in last year’s blowout, and they now anchor an offense winning most games by multiple possessions, while Cal’s recent outings showed Ames, Pippen, Bell and Camden struggling to generate efficient looks when hounded by bigger, longer defenses similar to the one they’ll face here. Still, the Tar Heels are only modestly above water against the number this season and have been shaky ATS in January, while Cal has historically been feisty as a home underdog, so laying -5.5 at -125 in a cross-country conference game carries real volatility despite the matchup edges. I grade North Carolina -5.5 as a B- pick: the on-paper advantages and Cal’s form suggest the favorite clears this number more often than not, but the juiced price and UNC’s recent ATS skid cap the value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:11