UCF vs Iowa State Big 12 Showdown

Iowa State’s unbeaten 10-0 mark at Hilton Coliseum, combined with a 16-2 overall record and ESPN’s analytics giving the Cyclones nearly a 90% win probability, makes their steep -1600 moneyline the safer side despite minimal payout. Recent form still leans their way even after a two-game road skid, with Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson anchoring an offense that’s shooting around 51% from the field and just hung 34 points from Momcilovic in the loss at Cincinnati, while UCF arrives 14-3 but only 3-2 in league play and stepping into one of the toughest road environments in the country. With no major rotation injuries listed in the latest game notes and Jefferson having torched UCF for 30 points in last year’s 108-83 home rout, the talent and depth edge still tilts heavily toward the Cyclones on their floor, even if the price is inflated. I’ll back Iowa State on the moneyline at -1600 with a B- grade: very likely to cash, but low monetary value unless used as a parlay anchor. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 09:40.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/preview/_/gameId/401827634))

UCF’s explosive offense (about 85 points per game behind Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks) might suggest fireworks, but Iowa State’s defense is allowing only around 65 points per night and has kept recent Big 12 games like Iowa, Baylor, and Oklahoma State mostly in the 130s–150s rather than the 160s. Across the last five outings for each side, only two of the combined 10 games have cleared 156.5, with the Cyclones’ slower, turnover-hunting style at home (10.3 turnovers per game themselves while forcing far more) often dragging opponents into grindier possessions even when their own offense is efficient. While last season’s 108-83 shootout in Ames smashed this number, these versions of UCF and Iowa State both defend better, and the context—a high-stakes league game with both sitting 3-2 in the Big 12 race—points toward a slightly tighter, more half-court battle. I’ll take Under 156.5 at -120 with a B grade, expecting defense and late-game pace control to keep the total just below the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 09:40.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401827634/ucf-iowa-state))

Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks give UCF enough shot-making to be live inside +13.5, especially with the Knights 8-2 over their last 10 and already showing they can travel and punch above their weight by upsetting Kansas and playing Arizona and Kansas State tight. Iowa State is still the superior team, but the Cyclones enter on a two-game skid (double-digit losses at Kansas and Cincinnati) and would not have covered -13.5 in either of those, suggesting some vulnerability when their pressure defense isn’t completely dictating tempo. With no key injuries reported on either side and Joshua Jefferson’s history of burning UCF in last year’s 108-83 blowout now well-scouted by a deeper, more balanced Knights rotation, this looks more like a solid Cyclone win than an automatic runaway, particularly if UCF’s offense—which is averaging north of 80 points and nearly 48% from the field—avoids extended droughts. I’ll grab UCF +13.5 at -110 with a B grade, banking on their improved roster and recent form to keep this within single digits or a low-teens margin. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 09:40.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401827634/ucf-iowa-state))