Texas vs UConn

UConn’s five-game winning streak against one of the nation’s toughest non-conference slates, capped by a grinding win over Florida, contrasts with Texas’ more modest run of three wins in its last four and a first true road test in Hartford tonight. With Tarris Reed Jr. back from ankle trouble and looking close to full strength, and freshman Braylon Mullins finally healthy after his own early-season ankle layoff, the Huskies’ rotation is deeper than it has been in weeks, while Texas comes in relatively healthy but still dependent on its top-heavy scoring core. Alex Karaban and Solo Ball already torched Texas for 37 combined points in last year’s 76–65 UConn road win, and the Huskies own both the all-time series edge and clear efficiency advantages on defense and the glass, even if Sean Miller’s 5–5 career mark versus UConn and Simeon Wilcher’s prior Big East success against the Huskies add a sliver of upset intrigue. I’m backing UConn on the moneyline because the win probability is extremely high, but the -1667 price drags this down to a C+ value grade rather than a premium play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 09:37. ([uconnhuskies.com](https://uconnhuskies.com/news/2025/12/11/mens-basketball-5-uconn-closes-non-con-on-friday-night-vs-texas))

Texas’ explosive offense, pushing around 89 points per game on better than 50% shooting and now riding a confidence-restoring 95–69 blowout of Southern after the Virginia loss, meets a UConn team that scores efficiently itself while holding opponents near 62 points but has recently played high-leverage games that clustered in the mid-140s to low-150s. With key frontcourt pieces like Reed back from injury and Mullins emerging as another perimeter weapon alongside Ball and Karaban, UConn’s attack should stress a Longhorn defense that has been far shakier than its offense, while Texas leans on Matas Vokietaitis, Dailyn Swain and multiple 40%-plus shooters to keep pace and repeatedly get to the line in a matchup UConn’s own staff pegs as foul-heavy. Last year’s 76–65 UConn win (141 total) came with a less potent Texas attack, and internal projections now hovering around 81–68 (149 total) plus Texas’ top-10 national free-throw rate versus a foul-prone Huskies front line nudge me to the Over 145.5 at -110, good enough for a B grade on likelihood and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 09:37. ([uconnhuskies.com](https://uconnhuskies.com/news/2025/12/11/mens-basketball-5-uconn-closes-non-con-on-friday-night-vs-texas))

Dailyn Swain and the Longhorns arrive in Hartford off that 26-point win over Southern and three victories in their last four, while UConn rides a five-game surge through Kansas, East Texas A&M and Florida that has reinforced its status as a top-10 defense and top-15 offense nationally. Injury-wise, the Huskies are in much better shape than a few weeks ago with Reed cleared and productive again and Mullins finally over his ankle issues, but that also means recent minutes-management and conditioning questions linger, whereas Texas’ primary rotation is intact and trending upward. Historically, UConn’s key trio of Karaban, Ball and Reed has already proved it can control this matchup, combining for big lines in last season’s 76–65 road win, yet even then the margin landed 11 and not close to tonight’s 16.5, and Sean Miller’s 5–5 career record against UConn plus Wilcher’s experience in two St. John’s wins over the Huskies suggest Texas can execute well enough to avoid a total meltdown. Given Texas’ ball security, scoring punch and familiarity with UConn’s physical style, I like the underdog Longhorns to stay inside +16.5 at -110, but UConn’s talent edge and home crowd keep this in B- territory rather than a stronger endorsement. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 12/12/2025 09:37. ([uconnhuskies.com](https://uconnhuskies.com/news/2025/12/11/mens-basketball-5-uconn-closes-non-con-on-friday-night-vs-texas))