Tennessee vs Florida

Florida’s veteran Gators have won four of their last five while Tennessee also rides a one-game bounce-back streak into Gainesville, but Florida’s combination of home-court edge and interior dominance makes the difference for the straight-up result. With the Vols still missing physical forward Cade Phillips for the season and leaning heavily on Ja'Kobi Gillespie’s 18.7 points and 5.7 assists to drive their offense, Florida can repeatedly attack the glass through Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon, the same tandem that helped power last year’s 73–43 rout of Tennessee here when Chinyelu ripped down 15 boards. Florida’s profile — 84.8 points and 47.3 rebounds per game, both slight edges over the Vols — combined with its recent national-title experience at the O’Connell Center is enough for me to lay the price and back Florida on the moneyline at -250, a B-grade play with strong win probability but only middling value because of the heavy juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:42

Tennessee’s Gillespie-led attack, fresh off an 85–71 win over Texas, and Florida’s offense, which has hung 90-plus in three of its last five, set up a tempo and efficiency combo that makes 150.5 look a touch light despite the juice on the Over. The Vols are scoring 83.4 per game and the Gators 84.8, and with Phillips out Tennessee is more likely to lean into smaller, faster lineups, while Florida’s deep, healthy perimeter group and elite offensive rebounding should extend possessions and create extra scoring chances. Yes, last season’s meetings — a 73–43 Florida blowout in Gainesville and Tennessee’s 64–44 payback in Knoxville — both crawled well under this number, but these rosters are now built more around shot-making guards like Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee for Florida and added scoring depth around Gillespie for Tennessee, tilting the matchup toward a higher-possession game. I’m playing Over 150.5 at -125 with a B+ grade, expecting both sides to push this into the mid-150s or higher often enough to justify the price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:42

Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon give Florida a clear size and rebounding edge against a Tennessee frontcourt thinned by Phillips’ season-ending shoulder injury, and that interior gap is exactly what you want when laying a modest number at home. Florida owns a roughly five-rebound-per-game advantage on the glass and has covered comfortably in recent Gainesville blowouts, while Tennessee’s one true SEC road test so far — an 86–75 loss at Arkansas — showed how vulnerable the Vols can be when they’re pushed around inside and forced to chase from behind. The recent series history has been dominated by the home side in lopsided fashion, including last January’s 30-point Gator win in this building, and Florida’s underlying metrics — top-tier defense plus elite offensive rebounding despite some early-season “disappointing” results — suggest they’re better than their 10–5 mark and well-equipped to stretch this into an 8–10 point margin. I’ll lay the -5.5 with Florida at -120 for a B- grade, acknowledging the tax on the number but trusting the matchup and venue to deliver enough cushion against the spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 09:42