Stanford vs Virginia

Virginia rides its 8-0 home record at John Paul Jones Arena and a 13-2 overall mark into this rematch, looking to avenge last season’s 88-65 loss at Stanford while facing a Cardinal team that has surged to 13-3 behind freshman scoring ace Ebuka Okorie. With the Cavaliers still boasting a balanced core of Thijs De Ridder, Dallin Hall, Malik Thomas and twin seven-footers anchoring an improved offense, the main concern on the moneyline is injury-thinned depth on the wings (no Jacari White and Devin Tillis, plus limited Martin Carrere), which slightly raises upset risk but hasn’t stopped them from stringing together wins. Stanford’s recent road heroics at Virginia Tech and overall offensive ceiling make +450 tempting, yet Virginia’s home dominance, defensive size at the rim, and revenge angle tilt this toward safely backing the Cavs straight up despite the heavy juice; that combination earns Virginia -800 a Grade B as a relatively likely but low-value favorite play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:05.

Ebuka Okorie’s emergence as a 20-plus point-per-game engine for Stanford has transformed the Cardinal into a top-end scoring outfit, fresh off multiple 30-point outings and an 88-80 win over CSUN that capped an 11-2 nonconference slate and pushed their season scoring average near 79 points per game. On the other side, Virginia under Ryan Odom has quietly shifted into a more aggressive offensive gear, hanging 80-plus on Maryland and 95 on American while riding a deep rotation headlined by De Ridder and Hall, and even with perimeter depth issues (White out, Tillis sidelined, Carrere banged up) the core scorers are logging heavier usage rather than the Hoos grinding every game into the 50s. Add in last season’s meeting finishing 88-65 in Stanford’s favor, Okorie’s on-ball pressure creating pace, and Virginia’s strong home efficiency, and the posted 143.5 total sits just below where these offenses project when both are in rhythm; Over 143.5 gets a Grade B as a solid but not elite edge given Virginia’s occasional tempo slowdowns. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:05.

Stanford’s recent form, highlighted by Okorie’s 31-point, late-game takeover at Virginia Tech and an 88-80 win over CSUN, suggests the Cardinal are too live to be catching +11.5 even in Charlottesville, especially with a healthy senior front line of Chisom Okpara and AJ Rohosy plus shooters like Benny Gealer helping them weather earlier injuries to Okorie and long-term questions around Donavin Young. Virginia is still rightly favored thanks to its 13-2 record, 8-0 home mark, and imposing size with De Ridder, Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, but the Cavaliers’ wing injuries (Tillis out, White sidelined, Carrere limited) shorten the rotation and make it harder to consistently maintain double-digit separation against a guard-driven team that already blew them out by 23 last year. With both sides entering off single-win streaks rather than extended runs and Stanford’s offense proving it can score on the road against physical ACC defenses, taking the points with Stanford +11.5 earns a Grade B+ as the best combination of value and likelihood among today’s angles. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:05.