SMU vs Duke

Cameron Boozer and Duke roll into Cameron Indoor at 14-1 (3-0 ACC), riding a multi-game win streak and a dominant 7-0 home mark, facing an SMU side that just had its surge checked by a narrow road loss at Clemson after blasting UNC 97-83. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/150?utm_source=openai)) With last season’s 89-62 Blue Devils road blowout over SMU still fresh, plus Duke’s current defensive edge (allowing just 66.0 points per game) against a Mustangs team that can be loose with shot selection, the talent gap and home-court whistle make Duke the clear straight-up side despite SMU’s 12-3 (1-1 ACC) start. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820657/smu-duke?utm_source=openai)) Significant injuries are limited to depth pieces for Duke while SMU’s rotation, including high-usage guard Boopie Miller and versatile forward Corey Washington, is intact, which helps the underdog’s punch but doesn’t meaningfully threaten Duke’s win probability in a single-game sample. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/2567?utm_source=openai)) At a prohibitive -1200, the price offers poor standalone value but works as a parlay anchor, so backing Duke on the moneyline earns a **B-** grade for very high likelihood but modest monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:00

SMU’s fast-paced attack, led by Miller’s 20.6 points and 7.1 assists per night with strong support from Corey Washington and 7-foot-2 rim runner Samet Yigitoglu, has pushed Mustangs games to around 167 combined points on average (90.1 scored, 76.7 allowed), while Duke’s balanced offense behind Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and Caleb Foster produces 87.1 per game and concedes just 66.0. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820657/smu-duke?utm_source=openai)) Recent form reinforces the scoring profile: SMU dropped 97 on UNC and still gave up 83, and Duke’s last outing was an 84-73 win over Louisville, so both are comfortable playing into the 160s when pace and shot-making are there. ([tarheelblog.com](https://www.tarheelblog.com/unc-basketball/50591/unc-basketball-final-score-smu?utm_source=openai)) Even with Duke’s length and defensive rebounding at home likely trimming some transition chances, the combination of heavy guard usage, high three-point volume, and the emotional bump of a ranked ACC showdown in Cameron points toward enough possessions and efficiency to clear 158.5 more often than not. Because the number sits only a hair below their blended scoring baseline and the juice is a standard -120, the **Over 158.5** gets a **B** grade for a solid edge without being a slam-dunk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:00

Boopie Miller’s creation off the bounce gives SMU a fighting chance to hang inside +12.5, even after last season’s 89-62 home loss to Duke that showcased how quickly the Blue Devils can snowball a game once they string together stops and transition threes. ([cbssports.com](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/gametracker/boxscore/NCAAB_20250104_DUKE%40SMU/?utm_source=openai)) This time, the Mustangs arrive more battle-tested under Andy Enfield, fresh off a ranked stretch that includes a statement win over UNC and only a four-point road loss at Clemson, while their current rotation is healthy with Washington confirmed available after a recent undisclosed issue. ([smumustangs.com](https://smumustangs.com/news/2026/1/9/mens-basketball-ranked-matchup-no-24-smu-at-no-6-duke-saturday-1pm-espn.aspx?utm_source=openai)) On the Duke side, Boozer’s ability to punish mismatches and control the defensive glass, plus a 7-0 home record, certainly supports another comfortable win, but early-season injury management for veterans like Maliq Brown, a deep SMU front line featuring Yigitoglu and Jaden Toombs, and the Mustangs’ 90.1-point offense all increase the likelihood of backdoor scenarios where SMU stays within double digits. ([smumustangs.com](https://smumustangs.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/2025-26?utm_source=openai)) With the market already heavy on Duke’s side and the number above two full possessions from a typical late-game fouling margin, grabbing **SMU +12.5 (-118)** earns a **B** grade as a respectable combination of cover probability and payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:00