Saint Louis vs Dayton

Saint Louis rides a 4-1 stretch over its last five while Dayton has quietly stacked three straight wins at home, setting up a moneyline choice between a dominant favorite and a resurgent host. The Billikens’ depth and continuity are in a better place, with only redshirting forward Kalu Anya unavailable, whereas Dayton still has role pieces like Jacob Conner and Evan Dickey carrying recent injury tags and Jaron McKie out for the season, which slightly chips away at the Flyers’ rotation. In the first meeting, Saint Louis shredded Dayton 102-71 behind Trey Green’s seven threes and a balanced night from Robbie Avila and Dion Brown, and that perimeter mismatch is harder for the Flyers to fix on short turnaround even with Javon Bennett and De’Shayne Montgomery capable of punching back at home. With Saint Louis still pushing a top-25 profile and owning a clear efficiency edge on both ends, the road moneyline is the right side, but the heavy juice at -250 and hostile UD Arena environment limit the value to a solid-but-not-elite B-grade recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/02/2026 09:10

Dayton’s three-game winning streak and Saint Louis’ 9-1 run over its last 10 have come with a surprising tilt toward unders, even as the Billikens average around 90 points and the Flyers sit in the mid-70s. Dayton’s recent surge has been driven by more disciplined half-court defense and heavier minutes for rim protector Amaël L’Etang, and if De’Shayne Montgomery is even slightly short of full strength after his recent undisclosed issue, the Flyers’ transition scoring ceiling ticks down a bit. On the other side, Saint Louis has repeatedly cashed unders in conference play when its defense controls tempo, holding opponents like Loyola Chicago and La Salle well below their usual outputs despite comfortable margins. While the 173-point explosion in the first meeting naturally inflates this total, that game featured an extreme shooting night from Saint Louis’ guards that’s tough to replicate at UD Arena, making the Under 156.5 at -118 my preferred angle and worthy of a B+ grade for a relatively strong combination of likelihood and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/02/2026 09:10

Dayton, now riding a three-game winning streak and 12-2 mark at home, is in a far better rhythm than it was in January’s 102-71 loss at Saint Louis, which is critical context for this +5.5 number. Even with some depth questions (Conner and Dickey recently listed as questionable and McKie out), the core of Javon Bennett, Montgomery, Keonte Jones and L’Etang is intact, and that group has tightened up defensively during this recent run while also showing more composure in late-game situations. Saint Louis is still the more complete team, largely healthy outside of Anya, and powered by Avila, Brown and Green, but it’s coming off an 18-game win streak that just ended and a high-emotion VCU game, which slightly raises the risk of a flat road stretch. Given the revenge factor, Dayton’s historically strong home-court, and the possibility that Saint Louis ekes out a tighter win than the market expects, grabbing the Flyers at +5.5 even at a juiced -125 earns a cautious B- grade rather than a stronger endorsement. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/02/2026 09:10