Baylor vs St. John's

St. John's enters this one off a gut-wrenching 83–82 loss to Iowa State but still brings a ranked profile, a 3–2 mark built on explosive scoring, and a front line of Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins, and Dillon Mitchell that should better hold its own on the glass after getting nudged around late on Monday. Baylor rides a 4–0 start behind Cameron Carr’s 20+ points per night and a ferocious rebounding edge that just buried Creighton, yet there are no major injuries on either side and St. John’s half-court talent plus slight depth advantage still make them the likelier winner, especially with some revenge motivation from last year’s 99–98 double-overtime loss to the Bears in tournament play. At a steep -278 price, though, the moneyline doesn’t offer great value relative to the risk against an unbeaten opponent that’s already proved it can handle this environment, so backing St. John’s to win is a lean rather than a slam dunk, worthy of a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/11/2025 10:59am

Cameron Carr and Baylor’s balanced, uptempo offense have yet to score fewer than the mid-70s and just put 81 on Creighton while hammering the offensive glass, which is a problem area for a St. John’s team that was just burned for 22 second-chance points by Iowa State in an 83–82 track meet. With the Red Storm still averaging in the 80s behind shot-makers like Oziyah Sellers and Hopkins, no notable injuries slowing their rotation, and both teams comfortable playing fast in a neutral-site tournament setting, the ingredients are here for long offensive rebounds, extra possessions, and another game that lives in the high 150s or higher. Even acknowledging the risk of some fatigue on the second day in Vegas, the combination of recent scoring outputs, Baylor’s board dominance, and St. John’s pace makes Over 161.5 at -110 a solid but not elite play, grading it a B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/11/2025 10:59am

Baylor’s new-look roster, led by Carr, Dan Skillings Jr., and a deep frontcourt, has started 4–0 with multiple double-figure scorers every night and just showed how its size and relentlessness on the glass can keep games tight even when the offense isn’t perfectly clean, which directly attacks St. John’s late-game weaknesses on the boards and in execution that showed up again against Iowa State. With no significant injury news thinning either rotation, a neutral floor in Las Vegas, and the memory of last season’s 99–98 double-overtime Baylor win over Pitino’s group, getting the Bears at +6.5 feels generous relative to the on-court gap between an unbeaten Big 12 side and a talented but slightly wobbly Red Storm squad that’s 0–2 against ranked opponents. St. John’s can absolutely eke out a win, but Baylor’s current four-game streak, physical profile, and coaching history in neutral-site tournaments make the underdog spread my favorite angle on the board, earning a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 25/11/2025 10:59am