San Diego State vs Arizona

Arizona’s 10-0 start, double-digit winning streak and repeated 20-plus point beatdowns of ranked opponents like Auburn and Alabama, built around an 88–90 points-per-game offense and top-tier efficiency from Koa Peat, Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Motiejus Krivas, makes the Wildcats an overwhelming Moneyline favorite against a San Diego State squad that’s “only” 6-3 and stepping up a level in class. San Diego State does bring momentum from a two-game win streak and a healthier group with key returnee Reese Dixon-Waters back from last year’s foot injury, plus BJ Davis and Miles Byrd carrying much of the scoring load, but the Aztecs are still facing an Arizona program that leads the all-time series 25–7 and has won five straight, including the comfortable 87–70 win in Maui in 2022. With the game in Phoenix, where Arizona fans will heavily tilt a “neutral” environment, and with the Wildcats outscoring teams by more than 20 points per night while dominating the glass, the path for an SDSU Moneyline upset is extremely narrow despite the Aztecs’ history of occasionally toppling No. 1 seeds. From a probability standpoint Arizona is the clear side, but -1667 offers very little payout for the risk, so this recommendation grades out as a B-: highly likely to cash, but poor monetary value unless you’re using it as a small parlay anchor. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:47am

San Diego State’s ability to score in the low 80s behind BJ Davis, Miles Byrd, Reese Dixon-Waters and a 48% team field-goal mark with nearly nine made threes per game, combined with Arizona’s 88–90 points per night, 53% shooting and deep, relentless attack led by Koa Peat, Bradley and Burries, sets up a strong offensive environment for this neutral-site game in Phoenix. The Wildcats have been piling up blowouts with five straight wins of 20-plus while averaging around 90, and their tempo plus turnover creation tends to inflate possessions on both sides; at the same time, SDSU’s perimeter firepower and willingness to push in transition mean they can trade punches rather than simply grind this into a rock fight. Defensively, Arizona is clearly stronger (around 67 points allowed), but San Diego State has been giving up mid-70s, which, when blended with the projected pace and the Wildcats’ offensive ceiling, points toward a combined total comfortably in the 150s or higher if the Aztecs keep this competitive. The risk is that SDSU leans on its physical defense to drag the pace down, but given both teams’ current scoring profiles and recent game logs, Over 154 at -110 gets a solid B: not a lock, yet offering decent value in a matchup that naturally leans high-scoring if Arizona dictates tempo. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:47am

Miles Byrd and BJ Davis give San Diego State enough shot-making and late-clock creation, alongside a now-healthy Reese Dixon-Waters, to believe the Aztecs can hang within the +14.5 despite Arizona’s undefeated record and dominant metrics. While the Wildcats are on a long winning streak and beating teams by more than 20 per game behind stars like Peat, Bradley and Burries, they’ve also shown some sloppiness with high-turnover outings, and SDSU’s disruptive perimeter defense plus 8.7 made threes per contest can punish those mistakes and create the kind of mini-runs that keep margins manageable on a neutral floor in Phoenix. Historically, Arizona owns this series (25–7 all-time with five straight wins, including the 2022 Maui blowout), but Brian Dutcher’s program has proven it can punch up against No. 1-level opposition, and this year’s Aztecs again bring length, depth and experience that tend to travel well in showcase settings like the Hall of Fame Series. Arizona is still the clear favorite to win outright, yet asking them to cover more than two full possessions beyond a dozen points against a top-50 caliber offense with a two-game heater and its key rotation intact feels a bit rich, so SDSU +14.5 at -110 earns a B+ as a reasonably strong value play with some backdoor-cover equity. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:47am