Michigan vs San Diego State

Michigan’s 4-0 start, with emphatic wins over Oakland and Middle Tennessee plus tight escapes against Wake Forest and TCU, puts the Wolverines on a clear upswing against a San Diego State side that’s 2-1 and coming off a wild 108-107 loss to Troy after two comfortable victories. With preseason All-American transfer Yaxel Lendeborg trending back toward full strength after an early right-hand issue, and elite size from Aday Mara and Malick Kordel complementing a deep guard rotation. The Aztecs’ physical defense and Brian Dutcher’s track record keep this neutral-site matchup competitive, but with Michigan riding a four-game win streak, entering ranked in the top 10, and owning the most recent series meeting 72-58 back in 2021, laying the -250 moneyline is justified—even if the steep price keeps this at a B-grade rather than a premium A-level edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 11:45am

San Diego State’s early totals (77-45 vs Long Beach State, 73-57 vs Idaho State, and that 108-107 track meet against Troy) alongside Michigan’s 121-78, 85-84, 67-63, and 86-61 results paint a raw scoring picture that nudges toward the high side of 140s, but a deeper look points slightly the other way. At a neutral site like Michelob ULTRA Arena, shooting often dips with new sightlines, and both programs lean on structured half-court defense: Michigan brings elite length and rim protection with Lendeborg, Mara, and Morez Johnson, while San Diego State’s switchable wings and guards can grind tempo—especially now that Gwath’s continued absence and the careful ramp-up for Dixon-Waters have shortened Brian Dutcher’s rotation and incentivized controlling pace rather than trading haymakers. With only two of these teams’ seven combined regular-season games clearing 148 so far, I’m grading Under 148 at -110 as a solid but not slam-dunk B pick, expecting something more like a mid-60s to low-70s battle on each side than a repeat of the Troy-style scorefest. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 11:45

San Diego State’s backcourt trio of Miles Byrd, BJ Davis, and Sean Newman Jr. plus its track record of staying inside numbers under Brian Dutcher make the Aztecs attractive at +5.5, even against a Michigan team that’s 4-0, ranked in the top 10, and already battle-tested by narrow wins over Wake Forest and TCU. Michigan still owns real matchup edges—Lendeborg’s two-way star power, Mara’s and Kordel’s size, and a mostly healthy rotation now that Lendeborg’s hand is close to 100% and the early dings to the frontcourt have eased—while San Diego State is navigating life without Gwath and with Dixon-Waters still not fully ramped, pushing them toward smaller, quicker lineups that can switch and bother Michigan’s guards but may struggle on the defensive glass. With Michigan riding a four-game win streak and rightfully favored to win outright, I still lean Wolverines on the moneyline, yet expect enough variability from late-game fouling and tournament pressure that San Diego State covers +5.5 often enough to warrant a value-driven B- grade on the spread rather than laying the points with the favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 11:45am