Purdue vs Rutgers

Braden Smith and Purdue come into Piscataway riding a perfect start and multiple blowout wins over high-major opponents, while Rutgers has mixed a recent three-game skid with a needed bounce-back in Las Vegas, so current momentum clearly tilts toward the Boilermakers. Purdue’s only notable health concern, Trey Kaufman-Renn’s early-season hip issue, appears resolved as he’s back producing efficiently in the frontcourt, whereas Rutgers enters without any widely reported key absences but with far less proven depth. Matchup history is brutal for the Scarlet Knights too, with Purdue winning five straight in the series and drilling Rutgers by 18+ in each of the last three, including a 100-point outburst fueled by Smith and Fletcher Loyer from deep, and another comfortable road win here at Jersey Mike’s. Laying -2500 on a road favorite offers almost no bang for your buck even in a mismatch, so while I expect Purdue to win this game outright at a very high rate, the price drag keeps this recommendation at a Moneyline grade of C+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:43am

Rutgers’ offense has swung wildly between strong interior performances from Emmanuel Ogbole and Dylan Grant and long cold stretches like their recent scoring droughts against power-conference opponents, and that inconsistency is especially concerning against Purdue’s length and top-tier half-court defense. Purdue can obviously erupt offensively, but Matt Painter’s teams often slow the game in true road conference openers, and with one key bench shooter in Liam Murphy sidelined, the Boilermakers have slightly less perimeter punch behind Loyer if this turns into a grind. Historically, recent Purdue–Rutgers meetings have featured some gaudy point totals in West Lafayette, yet the most relevant data point for this building is last season’s 68–50 Purdue road win here, which reflected Rutgers’ tendency to drag elite visitors into a choppy, physical style on their home floor. With Purdue likely to control the tempo and Rutgers leaning on size, defense, and a short rotation after a taxing neutral-site stretch, I like this total to land below 146.5 and would grade the Under as a solid B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:43am

Fletcher Loyer’s shooting and Purdue’s balanced scoring have fueled a series of double-digit wins, and with the Boilermakers undefeated and coming off another 20+ point demolition, their current form is far stronger than a Rutgers team that just staggered through a three-game losing streak before finally righting the ship against UNLV. Health-wise, Purdue’s core of Smith, Loyer, Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff, and Daniel Jacobsen is intact despite early-season knocks, while Rutgers leans heavily on Grant, Ogbole, and Jamichael Davis with a relatively inexperienced supporting cast, which raises concern about their ability to withstand Purdue’s relentless physicality for 40 minutes. Recent head-to-heads strongly favor a blowout script: Purdue has taken five straight in the matchup, covering big numbers with a 68–50 win at Rutgers and a 100–71 rout at home in which Smith and Loyer combined for 46 and 14 made threes, and those same primary creators are back for another run. Given Purdue’s track record of crushing Big Ten opponents and Rutgers’ shaky offensive ceiling, I’m willing to lay the -16.5 with the Boilermakers on the road and grade this spread play a B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:43am