Cowboys vs Cyclones

Iowa State rides a 15-0 surge into Hilton with a veteran core of Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic, and Nate Heise that just handled Baylor and already logged big minutes together in last year’s meeting with Oklahoma State, while the Cowboys arrive at 13-2 but with key rotation forward Robert Jennings out for the season and contributors like Christian Coleman and Lefteris Mantzoukas recently listed on the injury report. The Cyclones’ home-court edge, top-tier efficiency profile, and recent form (including a double-digit win over Baylor) sharply contrast with an Oklahoma State group that was blown out in its Big 12 opener before bouncing back versus UCF, and historical trends show Iowa State as the superior current side even though the Cowboys have had the better of the series over the last decade. At a massive -3300 price, the implied win probability is in line with projection models that peg Iowa State north of 95% at home, but the return is minimal, so this is a high-confidence, low-upside position that earns a solid but not elite B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:16([oddsshark.com](https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/oklahoma-state-iowa-state-odds-january-10-2026-2490019?utm_source=openai))

Oklahoma State’s explosive pace and recent 87-76 win over UCF point toward a track meet, but Iowa State’s defense-first identity at Hilton, plus their 70-60 grinder against Baylor and simulation models projecting scores closer to the mid-150s, all lean Under this inflated 164.5 total even with both offenses humming. While the Cowboys have cashed a lot of recent Overs, historical meetings in Ames have typically landed Under, and an 18.5-point spread for the Cyclones raises real blowout risk that could slow tempo late as T.J. Otzelberger leans on his depth rather than pressing for margin. Add in that Oklahoma State’s frontcourt is thinner without Jennings and may struggle to maintain efficiency for 40 minutes against Iowa State’s size and rim protection, and the Under gains some value despite being shaded to -118, though conflicting trend profiles and OSU’s tempo keep this at a B- rather than a stronger endorsement. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:16([oddsshark.com](https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/oklahoma-state-iowa-state-odds-january-10-2026-2490019?utm_source=openai))

Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson have already proved they can punish Oklahoma State’s defense, combining for big lines in last season’s matchup, and now they spearhead an unbeaten Cyclone group that owns a large efficiency gap over the Cowboys and just extended its school-record start, while Oklahoma State comes in 13-2 but recently showed its defensive cracks in a 102-80 loss to Texas Tech before stabilizing against UCF. With OSU down Robert Jennings and monitoring the status of Christian Coleman and Lefteris Mantzoukas, their frontcourt depth is stretched against an Iowa State rotation that can keep fresh size on the floor and has historically thrived in Hilton blowouts; advanced models and several sharp previews project a margin around or above 20 despite the Cowboys’ respectable ATS record and prior series success. Laying -18.5 at roughly -120 is uncomfortable, but given Iowa State’s current form, home environment, and matchup advantages on both the glass and the defensive end, the favorite against the number grades out as a B-level play with decent upside if the Cyclones turn defense into easy transition scores. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 10/01/2026 10:16([dimers.com](https://www.dimers.com/bet-hub/cbb/schedule/2025_69_isu_okst?utm_source=openai))