Nevada vs Utah State

Utah State’s relentless form at 14-1 overall and riding a five-game winning streak, powered by the explosive scoring of MJ Collins Jr. and the balanced guard play of Mason Falslev and Drake Allen, makes them an overwhelming moneyline favorite at home against Nevada. Utah State has been burying quality Mountain West opponents by large margins and enters this one healthy with no significant injuries listed, while Nevada’s own recent surge (four wins in its last five) has come despite key rotation pieces Corey Camper Jr. and Joel Armotrading being sidelined, tightening the Wolf Pack’s depth. Historical context tilts toward the Aggies, who have taken two of the last three meetings including a 69–64 win in Reno and a 90–69 rout in Logan, even if Nevada did stun them in Logan back in 2024 to snap a long home streak, reminding us of some variance in this matchup. Given Utah State’s dominant offensive efficiency, depth edge, and strong home-court advantage, Utah State (-1400) is the logical moneyline side, but the steep price and limited standalone value cap this at a **B-** grade despite a very high likelihood of cashing. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:58

MJ Collins Jr. and Utah State’s turbocharged offense, averaging mid‑80s in points with elite shooting splits and multiple recent blowouts in the 90s, set the tone for an OVER-friendly environment against a Nevada team that has quietly caught fire from three, hitting over 42% from deep during its recent six-game heater. Utah State has been pushing totals high on its own – dropping 96 on San José State, 99 at Air Force, and 93 at Boise State – while Nevada’s improved perimeter efficiency and willingness to run off makes suggest the Wolf Pack can contribute enough scoring to avoid a pure Aggie-led under, even with their injuries to Camper Jr. and Armotrading. With markets sitting around 152.5 after opening slightly higher, and both teams coming in on winning streaks with top-end offensive form, the pace-and-efficiency combo points me toward **Over 152.5 (-110)**, graded a **B** because the number is fairly sharp but still offers solid upside if Nevada’s shooters travel. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:58

Nevada’s recent form – four wins in its last five and a solid 8–8 record against the spread overall – gives the Wolf Pack a fighting chance to stay within +12.5 even in a brutal road spot, especially with guards like Tyler Rolison emerging and the team’s hot three‑point shooting spike offsetting the loss of injured veterans Corey Camper Jr. and Joel Armotrading. Utah State has been demolishing opponents on the scoreboard, but the Aggies are only around .500 ATS and just 2–3 against the spread at home, which, combined with Nevada’s history of competing in Logan (including a 77–63 road win there in 2024 and other recent tight matchups), introduces real backdoor cover potential in the final minutes if Utah State eases off. With the Aggies’ dominant offense, home-court altitude, and superior depth still giving them a strong chance to win comfortably, I lean to **Nevada +12.5 (-110)** as a numbers play more than a conviction side, grading it **C+** for moderate probability and decent value but clear blowout risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:58