Notre Dame vs North Carolina

North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson leads a 14-4 Tar Heels squad that, despite dropping three of its last four and leaking nearly 90 points a night during that West Coast slide, now gets a much-needed reset back in Chapel Hill against a Notre Dame team riding a four-game losing streak in ACC play.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820687/notre-dame-north-carolina)) Even with senior guard Seth Trimble still sidelined after his forearm fracture and some defensive fragility, Wilson’s 19.7 points and 10.6 boards per game, backed by stretch big Henri Veesaar and playmaker Kyan Evans, give UNC a clear talent and efficiency edge over the Irish, whose own stars Jalen Haralson and rebound machine Caleb Towt haven’t been able to overcome both their recent skid and the season-ending knee injury to key big man Kebba Njie.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/46909904/mens-ncaa-basketball-opening-week-2025-26-overreactions-north-carolina-arizona-purdue-freshmen)) With UNC scoring nearly nine points more per game, winning the glass, and backed by a strong home-court edge in the Smith Center, the Tar Heels are worthy heavy favorites, but the -800 price trims value enough that I grade this moneyline a B: likely to cash, but with modest return relative to the risk of a still-inconsistent, banged-up favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:41

Notre Dame’s Jalen Haralson spearheads an offense averaging 73.4 points per game that now runs into a North Carolina group putting up 81.9 per night but allowing far more than its season-long 69.6 defensive mark during a recent stretch where the Heels have surrendered big numbers in three losses over their last four.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820687/notre-dame-north-carolina)) UNC’s pace, Wilson’s star-level usage, and a deep supporting cast that shares the ball for 17 assists per game suggest the Tar Heels will push tempo and force Notre Dame out of its comfort zone, especially with the Irish frontcourt thinner after Njie’s season-ending knee injury, which puts more pressure on Towt to protect the rim and stay out of foul trouble.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820687/notre-dame-north-carolina)) Notre Dame’s four-game losing streak has come with defensive lapses of its own, and with neither side close to 41 games yet, this matchup is more about ACC positioning than cautious playoff-style grind, pointing toward a free-flowing game that can crest the 148.5 total; I grade the Over at 148.5 (-118) as a B, with a fair blend of likelihood and payout given both teams’ recent trends and UNC’s up-tempo home environment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:41

Notre Dame’s Caleb Towt anchors an Irish team that, while mired in a four-game skid and now missing rotation big man Kebba Njie for the season, has generally competed to the horn and recently took Cal to the wire before falling by a single point, suggesting they’re more pesky than their 10-8, 1-4 ACC record implies.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820687/notre-dame-north-carolina)) On the other side, North Carolina has the higher ceiling behind Wilson and a revamped roster, but Trimble’s ongoing absence, a leaky defense that has fueled three losses in the last four, and some late-game wobble on that West Coast swing all raise questions about the Heels consistently winning by margin even at home.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/46909904/mens-ncaa-basketball-opening-week-2025-26-overreactions-north-carolina-arizona-purdue-freshmen)) With UNC still favored to win outright and carrying clear advantages in scoring punch, rebounding, and depth, the Irish plus the 11.5-point cushion benefit from the combination of their own size with Towt, Haralson’s shot-making, and UNC’s current volatility, making Notre Dame +11.5 (-125) a B- grade: a modest-value position that leans on the Irish keeping things competitive rather than any expectation that they’ve suddenly solved their broader issues. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 21/01/2026 09:41