Michigan vs Oregon

Michigan’s 15-1 start, +25.1 average scoring margin, and top-three national offense built around Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and a deep guard rotation make their -4000 moneyline a logical side against an Oregon team that’s 8-9, has dropped four of its last five and is dealing with major injury questions for star guard Jackson Shelstad and leading scorer Nate Bittle, both of whom have previously hurt Michigan — Shelstad with a 33-point dagger game in Eugene and the Wolverines answering last season with a balanced 80-76 win in Ann Arbor behind Will Tschetter and Nimari Burnett — but with Michigan essentially at full strength outside of a redshirting Ricky Liburd and already 13-1 this season as a moneyline favorite, including perfect results when priced at -4000 or shorter, I’m backing the Wolverines to simply win the game, grading this as a B because the probability of cashing is extremely high while the payout is minimal relative to the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:06([mgoblue.com](https://mgoblue.com/news/2026/1/16/mens-basketball-wolverines-ducks-to-clash-saturday-in-eugene?utm_source=openai))

Oregon’s banged-up offense, which already averages a modest 75.4 points with one of the slowest tempos in the Big Ten and now likely leans even more on secondary creators like Wei Lin and Kwame Evans Jr. while Shelstad and Bittle nurse significant hand and foot issues, faces a Michigan group that scores a blistering 93.8 points per game but also ranks among the nation’s best in defensive efficiency and rebounding, helping squeeze opponent possessions and shot quality; with the Wolverines having just shown in recent games that their three-point percentage can dip and still produce comfortable wins, and given that recent Michigan–Oregon matchups have often stayed in the 150s even when both sides were healthier and more explosive, I’m leaning Under 157.5 at standard juice, grading it a B because the number sits a bit above Oregon’s realistic scoring ceiling in this injury context yet still has some volatility risk if Michigan’s transition attack completely overwhelms the Ducks. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:06([fanduel.com](https://www.fanduel.com/research/michigan-vs-oregon-college-basketball-predictions-odds-picks-best-bets-for-1-17-2026))

Nimari Burnett and Yaxel Lendeborg headline a Michigan side that has been dominant overall but far less trustworthy against the number on the road, entering this matchup 0-4 ATS away from Ann Arbor despite that gaudy scoring margin, while Oregon, for all its struggles and recent blowout at Nebraska, still plays slow, defends better at home in Matthew Knight Arena and has historically competed well with Michigan in Eugene, including that 2023 overtime win keyed by Shelstad’s 33 points when the Ducks were healthier; with today’s line inflated to +18.5 at -118 compared with market openers in the mid-teens, and the Ducks’ frontcourt size from Evans, Pryor and their centers at least giving them a chance to limit second-chance avalanches, I’ll grab Oregon and the points, grading this B+ as my favorite angle because the combination of tempo, home court and Michigan’s shaky road ATS profile creates meaningful value even though the Wolverines are still highly likely to win comfortably. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:06([fanduel.com](https://www.fanduel.com/research/michigan-vs-oregon-college-basketball-predictions-odds-picks-best-bets-for-1-17-2026))