Michigan State vs Nebraska

Michigan State’s elite defense and top-five national rebounding margin travel to Lincoln riding a four-game win streak to take on a Nebraska group that is 13-0 overall, 9-0 at home, and carrying the nation’s longest active win streak dating back to last season. With Jaxon Kohler piling up double-doubles, Jeremy Fears Jr. orchestrating at a nation-leading assist rate, and Coen Carr’s athleticism on the wings, the Spartans’ physicality directly targets a Huskers team that has struggled on the offensive glass and just lost key floor-spacer Connor Essegian for the season. Add in Tom Izzo’s 24–10 all-time edge over Nebraska and dominance in this series compared with the current price of +107, and the underdog moneyline offers enough payoff to justify a Grade B recommendation despite Nebraska’s formidable home-court and undefeated start. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 09:43

Nebraska’s three-point-heavy attack, led by inside-out duo Rienk Mast and Pryce Sandfort, meets a Michigan State defense ranked among the nation’s best in adjusted efficiency and allowing roughly mid-60s points per game while dragging tempo into the high 60s in possessions. The Huskers do score more freely at home, but their recent shooting surge and thin perimeter depth without Essegian collide with the Spartans’ size-controlled pace and rebounding edge, both of which tend to flatten games into more grind-it-out Big Ten scores despite both teams’ strong offensive efficiency. With market totals already nudging up into the mid-140s elsewhere while the underlying matchup still tilts toward defense, Under 143.5 at -110 earns a Grade B as a modest value play on the combined effect of tempo, series familiarity and MSU’s ability to limit second-chance and transition points. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 09:43

Jaxon Kohler’s interior dominance and Michigan State’s double-digit rebounding margin give the Spartans a stylistic edge catching +2 in a matchup where they already own 12 wins in the last 13 meetings and have historically handled Nebraska’s half-court offense. While the Huskers’ perfect 13-0 record and strong home shooting behind Mast, Sandfort and steady guard Sam Hoiberg make Pinnacle Bank Arena a brutal place to steal a win, Nebraska’s season-ending loss of Essegian trims their margin for error against a defense that can switch, contest threes and keep them to one shot. With underlying efficiency metrics rating MSU a few points better on a neutral and the spread still giving the Spartans a small cushion in what profiles as a tight, late-possession game, Michigan State +2 at -110 grades out at B+ for combining a solid probability edge with protection if Nebraska’s streak survives in a one-possession affair. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/01/2026 09:43