Missouri vs Kansas

Mark Mitchell and Missouri’s explosive offense, fresh off an 8-2 start that only recently saw their long winning streak snapped at Notre Dame, make the underdog moneyline attractive against a Kansas team that just had its own three-game run halted by UConn and may still be managing Darryn Peterson’s hamstring and minute load at 6-3. With Missouri returning multiple core pieces who helped topple then-No. 1 Kansas 76-67 last season and pushing pace behind Mitchell, Anthony Robinson II and a deep frontcourt, the Tigers are better equipped for a neutral-floor shootout than this +215 price suggests, even with the Jayhawks’ size edge through Flory Bidunga and the quasi-home environment in Kansas City. I’m backing Missouri on the moneyline for the combination of upset potential and plus-money value, but the risk of a Kansas response after a rivalry loss last year keeps this at a Grade B recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:37am

Missouri’s 90-plus points per game scoring pace and willingness to run, even in their 76-71 loss at Notre Dame, combine with Kansas’ efficient attack built around Bidunga inside and a potentially returning Peterson on the perimeter to set up a game that should feature sustained tempo and quality shot-making despite both teams’ respectable defensive numbers. The Tigers have repeatedly pushed totals into the 150s and beyond with five double-figure scorers and a deep rotation, while Kansas’ recent low-scoring grinder versus UConn looks more like a matchup-specific outlier than a new identity, particularly in a rivalry setting at a neutral site where fouls and free throws tend to spike late. With each side coming off a loss that heightens urgency and shortens benches around their best creators, I lean to Over 148.5 at -110, expecting late-game possessions and clock-stopping whistles to help this clear the number, good enough for a Grade B based on moderate confidence and fair juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:37am

Flory Bidunga and Kansas’ front line should control stretches of the glass, but Missouri’s track record of hanging with and beating this program—highlighted by last year’s 76-67 win behind Mitchell and Robinson II—plus the Tigers’ recent form outside a single-possession loss at Notre Dame suggests this Border War is more coin-flip than comfortable Jayhawks win, especially with Peterson just coming back from a multi-game hamstring absence. Both teams enter off losses that snapped solid winning streaks, yet Missouri’s depth, turnover creation and three-level scoring have traveled well enough that asking Kansas to cover -6.5 in a rivalry game on a neutral floor in Kansas City feels aggressive, even accounting for fan tilt toward the Jayhawks and their top-25 profile. I’m taking Missouri +6.5 at -110 with a Grade B+ because the underdog’s high-powered offense and recent head-to-head success provide both a strong chance to stay within one or two possessions and reasonable upside if the Tigers threaten another outright upset. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/12/2025 09:37am