Maryland vs Virginia

Virginia’s 9-1 start and four-game winning streak, including a 6-0 mark at John Paul Jones Arena, makes the Cavaliers the clear moneyline side over a 6-5 Maryland squad that has dropped two straight and struggled defensively. With Maryland already missing guard Rakease Passmore for the season and star forward Pharrel Payne nursing the ankle injury that flipped their strong effort against Michigan into a blowout loss, the Terps’ frontcourt depth and interior defense look vulnerable against Thijs De Ridder’s efficient scoring and Virginia’s balanced, healthy rotation, even if no current players have meaningful head-to-head history in this long-running series that UVA has controlled of late. At -2000 the implied win probability leaves thin value, but given the gap in current form, injuries and home-court edge, backing Virginia on the moneyline earns a B- for reliability rather than return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:42([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401817514/maryland-virginia?utm_source=openai))

Maryland’s leaky defense and turnover issues under Buzz Williams, giving up 80.5 points per game while coughing it up at a bottom-tier national rate, combine with Virginia’s 87.1 points per game and new fast-paced, three-heavy offense to tilt this total toward the Over 154.5. Even if Payne’s ankle limits Maryland’s leading scorer and rim presence, that can push the Terps toward a more perimeter-oriented attack, while Virginia’s shooters have been feasting on suspect three-point defenses like Maryland’s, and local projections for this matchup sit in the mid-150s to high-150s based on both teams’ season-long scoring profiles. With the combined average points in their games landing right around 156 and Odom’s Cavaliers already logging multiple 80-plus outings, the Over at -110 gets a solid B, balancing decent edge with standard juice rather than offering a true smash spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:42([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401817514/maryland-virginia?utm_source=openai))

Pharrel Payne’s uncertain health looms over the spread, because if Maryland’s top scorer and rebounder is limited again after that ankle injury against Michigan, it’s hard to see the Terps staying inside +15.5 against a Virginia team winning by nearly 20 points per game and thriving in a deep rotation. The Cavaliers’ 9-1 record, four-game winning streak and perfect 6-0 home mark, powered by De Ridder’s 16.1 points per night, Johann Grunloh’s rim protection and Chance Mallory’s disruptive backcourt defense, match up well against a Maryland side that’s thin on the wing with Passmore out and still turnover-prone, while Virginia’s only notable loss in the rotation is injured forward Devin Tillis. The rivalry factor and big number always leave room for a late backdoor, but the statistical gap, injuries and local projections of another double-digit Cavaliers win justify laying -15.5 with Virginia at -110 for a B-grade play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/12/2025 09:42([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401817514/maryland-virginia?utm_source=openai))