Louisville vs Pittsburgh

Louisville’s veteran core led by Ryan Conwell and Sananda Fru has stumbled to three losses in its last four outings, but the Cardinals still bring a top-tier offense (87.2 ppg) and strong rebounding edge into Pittsburgh against a Panthers squad that only recently snapped a three-game skid. With no fresh reports of major absences for this matchup and last year’s injury issues to shooters and forwards like Reyne Smith, Kasean Pryor and Aly Khalifa largely in the rearview, Louisville’s current rotation is deeper than the version that had to grind through much of 2024-25. The Cards have also taken the last two meetings against Pitt — including an 82-78 road win and a 79-68 home victory sparked by huge nights from Conwell’s predecessors in the backcourt — suggesting their spacing and shot-making travel well to the Petersen Events Center. Add in that ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Louisville roughly a four-in-five win probability while your -333 number bakes in a slightly lower implied chance, and the moneyline chalk on the road favorite earns a B+ grade for combining high win likelihood with modest but reasonable value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 17:57. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820679/louisville-pitt))

Pittsburgh’s scoring punch from Brandin Cummings on the perimeter and Cameron Corhen inside is coming off a confidence-boosting blowout at Georgia Tech, and that uptick in form meets a Louisville team whose games have already been averaging well into the 150s thanks to an 87.2-point offense and a defense that has regressed slightly during its recent 2–3 stretch. The Panthers’ own profile — around 74 points scored and 69 allowed per night with solid three-point volume — tends to rise at home, and last season’s matchups produced 160 and 147 total points despite Louisville dealing with more severe injury-related depth issues than it faces tonight. With both sides relatively healthy now, Louisville’s pace-and-space attack built around Conwell, Fru and an experienced guard rotation, combined with Pitt’s improved supporting scoring from pieces like Barry Dunning Jr. and Roman Siulepa, points toward enough possessions and efficient trips to challenge the 151.5 total, so I lean to Over 151.5 (-115) for a B- grade given the high number but favorable offensive matchup trends. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 17:57. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820679/louisville-pitt))

Cameron Corhen’s interior presence and Pittsburgh’s 6–5 home mark set the stage for the Panthers to be live underdogs catching +7.5, especially with Louisville arriving on a 2–3 skid and coming off multiple double-digit defeats that exposed some defensive slippage. While the Cardinals’ talent edge is real — they’ve already beaten Pitt by 4 on the road and 11 at home behind superior shooting and depth — Jeff Capel’s group has tended to hang around at the Petersen Events Center, and their recent blowout win plus emerging scorers like Cummings and Siulepa suggest enough firepower to trade punches for 40 minutes. Louisville’s current health is much better than during last season’s injury-riddled stretch, but lingering depth questions in the frontcourt and the grind of ACC play can show up more against motivated home dogs than on the moneyline, making a competitive game that Louisville still wins outright but fails to fully separate in garbage time a very reasonable script. With those form trends, matchup history and home-court dynamics in mind, Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125) gets a B- grade as a slightly juiced but appealing way to back the underdog. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 17:57. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401820679/louisville-pitt))