Louisville vs Indiana

Louisville’s experienced core, led by Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely, hits Indianapolis after having a seven-game winning streak snapped at Arkansas, just as Indiana’s own perfect start was derailed at Minnesota, putting both 7-1 teams in bounce-back mode. With no significant injuries on the Cardinals’ side versus a shorthanded Indiana rotation missing Jordan Rayford for the year and potentially down depth pieces like Drew Snively and Josh Harris, Louisville’s overall stability and two-way balance look more trustworthy on a neutral floor that still figures to draw plenty of red from both fanbases. The Cardinals also crushed Indiana 89-61 in last season’s Battle 4 Atlantis meeting, and many of the same key pieces — including high-usage wings Tucker DeVries for IU and Conwell for Louisville — are back in featured roles, but Louisville’s superior physicality and defensive metrics tilt the outright win probability firmly toward the favorite. At a relatively steep -205, you’re paying for that edge, so it’s a solid but not spectacular value play rather than a must-fire spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:42am

Indiana’s recent loss at Minnesota ended its seven-game win streak and underscored how this Hoosiers group, despite strong offensive stretches behind DeVries and Lamar Wilkerson, can bog down when the threes stop falling, which matters with a high total of 161.5 against a Louisville team that also just cooled off in its first defeat at Arkansas. Both defenses grade out as top-20 caliber in efficiency, and Louisville in particular has been elite at running opponents off the line and controlling the glass, factors that typically keep possessions more contested and scoring runs shorter in a neutral-site environment. Last season’s 89-61 Louisville blowout landed at just 150 total points, and while the current rosters are deeper and more potent, the combination of improved half-court defense on both sides, some injury-related backcourt thinning for Indiana, and late-game “grind it out” tendencies in a high-profile December showcase all lean toward a slightly lower-scoring script than this inflated number suggests. With both teams coming off humbling offensive performances that should sharpen their defensive focus more than their pace, the Under 161.5 at -110 grades out as the best value angle on the board. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:42am

Tucker DeVries gives Indiana a go-to scorer with big-game experience, and even after the Hoosiers’ seven-game win streak ended at Minnesota, they return to a de facto home setting in Indianapolis getting +4.5 against a Louisville squad that just showed cracks in its perimeter shooting, rebounding, and foul discipline in the Arkansas loss. While Louisville’s clean injury report, depth of shooters around Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr., and last year’s 28-point rout of Indiana argue for the Cardinals’ higher ceiling, the current version of IU spaces the floor better with DeVries, Wilkerson, and Reed Bailey, which should mitigate some of Louisville’s length and make it tougher for the favorite to create real separation. Indiana’s backcourt is dinged — with Rayford out and multiple rotation guards/questionable — but Darian DeVries has still ridden this roster to a strong early record and competitive defensive metrics, and getting multiple possessions in a rivalry-style neutral-site spot where both teams are responding to their first loss sets up well for a tight finish. With the moneyline price rich on Louisville and both profiles supporting a one- or two-possession game more often than a comfortable Cardinals cover, Indiana +4.5 at -110 earns the nod against the spread. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:42am