Louisville vs Arkansas

Louisville’s undefeated 7-0 run, featuring double-digit wins and a 104-47 rout of NJIT behind Ryan Conwell’s 32-point explosion, makes the Cardinals the side to trust on the moneyline at -162 even in a hostile Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas enters just 1-2 in its last three against top-flight opponents, including the recent 80-71 loss to Duke, and while the Razorbacks’ young core of Darius Acuff Jr., Meleek Thomas and Trevon Brazile has flashed upside, this group hasn’t yet closed out a ranked heavyweight the way Louisville has already done against Kentucky. With no major rotation injuries reported for either team in the latest previews and BPI/KenPom models leaning toward Louisville, the Cardinals’ superior defensive metrics, rebounding margin and depth of experienced guards tilt this matchup slightly in their favor on the road, though previous program history (Arkansas’ 80-54 blowout of Louisville in 2022 and John Calipari’s strong career mark vs. the Cards) keeps this from being an A-level edge. I’m grading Louisville -162 on the moneyline as a **B** play: a solid but not slam-dunk position on the hotter, more balanced team. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:41am

Arkansas’ offensive firepower, led by freshman scorers like Meleek Thomas and playmaker Darius Acuff Jr., has pushed the Hogs to 88.1 points per game, but their recent showings against elite defenses (71 vs. Duke, 66 at Michigan State) and Louisville’s top-10 efficiency profile suggest that both teams may find longer, more physical half-court stretches than the lofty 165.5 total implies. Louisville’s own 96.7 points per game headline number is inflated by blowouts against weaker competition, and the Cardinals also hold opponents to just 63.0 points on 36.1% shooting while forcing 15 turnovers per night, a combination that can sap overall pace even when they score efficiently themselves. With both sides entering relatively healthy and armed with multiple perimeter creators (Conwell, Isaac McKneely, Mikel Brown Jr. for Louisville; Acuff Jr., D.J. Wagner, Thomas for Arkansas), long possessions, free-throw trips and some late-game scoring bursts are still in play, but the major predictive models projecting scores clustering around the mid-160s and Louisville’s strong defensive rebounding tilt me to the Under 165.5 at -110 as a **B** value rather than betting on a pure track meet. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:41am

Darius Acuff Jr. and the Razorbacks have already shown they can hang for 40 minutes with top-tier opponents by leading Duke in the second half before fading late, and with Arkansas now back home where Bud Walton’s environment traditionally boosts energy and whistle, grabbing the Hogs at +3 feels like the sharper spread side even against a red-hot, 7-0 Louisville squad. While the Cardinals have mauled lesser foes behind Conwell’s 20.1 points per game and Brown Jr.’s table-setting, this is their first true road test, and their previous blowout loss to Arkansas in the 2022 Maui Invitational plus John Calipari’s long history of success against the Louisville program hint that the margin between these rosters is thinner than the rankings suggest. With both teams largely at full strength, Louisville’s superior efficiency metrics and deeper frontcourt rotation make a narrow Cardinals win the likeliest outcome, but Arkansas’ balanced scoring (Thomas, Brazile, Acuff Jr.), strong free-throw rate and respectable defensive numbers give them multiple paths to staying within one or two possessions and converting this +3 into a cover. I’m grading Arkansas +3 (-110) as a **B+** play, banking on home-court variance and late-game shot-making to keep this inside the number even if Louisville escapes with the win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:41am