Kansas State vs Arizona

Arizona’s 14-0 start, double-digit home dominance at McKale, and huge size edge with Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka on the glass over a smaller Kansas State front line make the Wildcats the clear side on the moneyline despite Kansas State’s recent four-game winning streak before the BYU loss. With no major rotation injuries reported for either team and Arizona already comfortable as a heavy favorite in multiple games, the talent gap plus home-court edge and rebounding margin support laying the massive price over taking a longshot Kansas State +1000 flyer. That said, the -3300 number offers very limited monetary upside relative to the risk, so while the win probability is elite, the value component drags this down to a B- recommendation reserved for parlays or high-certainty, low-yield plays rather than a standalone wager. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:45

These Arizona Wildcats can score in bunches behind Koa Peat and a six-deep group in double figures, but their top-50 defense and dominant rebounding profile suggest Kansas State may be forced into longer, low-efficiency possessions that work against such a lofty 170.5 total. Kansas State’s offense is heavily driven by PJ Haggerty’s usage and free-throw generation, and on the road against Arizona’s depth and size he’s more likely to grind out trips than sustain the pace needed for both teams to push into the 170s, especially with no major injuries shortening either rotation. Add in that Arizona’s average totals and Kansas State’s typical game numbers have generally landed below this inflated number, and that blowout potential often leads to slower second halves and bench-heavy minutes, and the Under 170.5 at -125 grades out as a solid but not elite B, with moderate edge and reasonable payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:45

Kansas State’s recent form—four wins in its last five before the setback against BYU—and the breakout scoring of PJ Haggerty give them just enough offensive punch and three-point variance to stay within +18.5 even if Arizona controls the game. Arizona has covered big numbers at times but has been more inconsistent ATS in the -18.5 or larger range, and with both teams healthy and the Wildcats of Tucson spreading minutes across a deep rotation, late-game bench lineups and potential foul trouble for their bigs like Krivas and Awaka open the door for a backdoor Kansas State cover. Historical series results favor Arizona at home but not always by overwhelming margins, and Kansas State’s shooting edge plus Arizona’s occasional easing off in blowouts make grabbing the +18.5 at -125 a B-level play: not as safe as the Arizona moneyline, but with significantly better potential return for the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:45