Iowa State vs Purdue

Purdue’s veteran core of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn has steered an 8-0 start, including a statement Big Ten-opening road win at Rutgers, while Iowa State also rides an 8-0 surge into one of the loudest home environments in college basketball. With Mackey Arena’s massive edge, Purdue’s No. 1-level offensive efficiency and frontcourt depth (Oscar Cluff, Sam King) facing an Iowa State group that leans heavily on Joshua Jefferson and may get only a less-than-100% version of groin-injury-returnee Tamin Lipsey, I expect the Boilermakers’ shot-making and experience to tilt a close battle their way. I’m backing Purdue on the -250 moneyline and grading it a B+ pick: very strong win probability, but a modest payout keeps it short of elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:37am

Iowa State’s turnover-hunting defense, which has fueled blowouts during this 8-0 start (including the 132-point eruption against Alcorn State), combined with Purdue’s ruthlessly efficient yet often methodical half-court offense, points me toward a slightly lower-scoring script than this 153 total suggests. When Purdue has faced top-tier opposition like Alabama and Texas Tech, games have tightened, and in a marquee non-conference matchup both Matt Painter and T.J. Otzelberger are likely to shorten rotations, emphasize half-court execution and accept longer, grinding possessions—especially if Lipsey is limited and Jefferson is asked to orchestrate even more in deliberate sets. I’m playing Under 153 at -110 and grading it a B: the defensive quality and big-game pacing angle are strong, but the ceiling created by elite shooting on both sides keeps it shy of A-range confidence. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:37am

Braden Smith’s command of Purdue’s offense at home, flanked by Loyer on the perimeter and Kaufman-Renn up front, makes laying -6 attractive against an Iowa State team whose pressure defense can struggle more when it isn’t fueled by a fully healthy Lipsey at the point. Both squads bring 8-0 records and top-10 metrics into Mackey, but Purdue’s history of stretching margins there against quality opponents, paired with Iowa State’s heavy reliance on Jefferson’s all-around creation, suggests that late-game fouls and the Boilermakers’ balance could push this out beyond one or two possessions. I’m taking Purdue -6 at -110 and grading it a B-: the home-court and matchup edges are real, yet Iowa State’s disruptive defense and ability to hit spurts of threes introduce enough volatility to keep this in the more cautious tier. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/12/2025 09:37am