Iowa State vs Oklahoma State

Iowa State’s core of Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic heads to Stillwater having started 16-0, then snapping a rare two-game skid with a 30-point rout of UCF to move to 17-2 and back into the top 10 of the polls and efficiency metrics. The Cyclones already handled Oklahoma State 83-71 in Ames behind 19 points from Jefferson and 18 from Momcilovic, while the Cowboys needed big nights from Anthony Roy and Parsa Fallah just to keep that first meeting respectable. Even with Iowa State missing transfer scorer Mason Williams for the season and Oklahoma State down veteran forward Robert Jennings, Lipsey’s return to form plus Jefferson’s triple-double threat give the deeper, more balanced side to the visitors. With Oklahoma State skidding through three losses in its last four despite a stout 12-1 home mark, and Iowa State sitting top-10 in NET and KenPom, the Cyclones’ -650 moneyline profiles as a high-probability but low-return play worthy of a B- grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/01/2026 09:35

Oklahoma State’s guard-driven attack with Roy, Kanye Clary and Jaylen Curry can push pace and score in bunches at Gallagher-Iba, but it now runs into an Iowa State defense that has been top-15 nationally in efficiency every year under T.J. Otzelberger and just held UCF to 57 points. Their first meeting landed on 154 total points 83-71 Cyclones even with strong shooting from both sides, and Iowa State’s preference for grinding half-court possessions plus its turnover-heavy defense tends to cap opponents’ scoring spikes. With the Cowboys recently dropping three of four and occasionally short-handed in the frontcourt, while the Cyclones lean on a deep rotation rather than a pure track meet, 162.5 sits a touch high relative to both teams’ recent scoring profiles. I’m siding with Under 162.5 -125 and grading it a B, expecting Iowa State’s defense and OSU’s occasional droughts to pull this into the high 140s to low 150s more often than a true shootout, even acknowledging late fouls as a risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/01/2026 09:35

Anthony Roy’s shot-making, combined with Oklahoma State’s 12-1 home record and aggressive defensive style, suggests the Cowboys are more live to hang around than a +10.5 number implies, especially after they were within two at halftime and ultimately lost by 12 in Ames in the first matchup. Iowa State’s elite trio of Lipsey, Jefferson and Momcilovic gives the Cyclones the higher ceiling, but they have leaned on defense and execution rather than sheer scoring margin, and they only just snapped a two-game losing streak themselves. On the other side, Oklahoma State has dropped three of four yet remained competitive, including a one-point win over Kansas State and a three-point road loss at TCU, and while Jennings’ season-ending absence trims some frontcourt depth, the main perimeter weapons are intact. Given Iowa State’s likely win but the Cowboys’ strong home-court, scoring balance and familiarity from facing these same stars two weeks ago, I prefer Oklahoma State +10.5 -125 with a B+ grade, expecting ISU to grind out a victory that lands inside this generous spread more often than not. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/01/2026 09:35