Iowa State vs Kansas

Iowa State’s 16-0 surge rolls into Allen Fieldhouse, and I’m still siding with the Cyclones on the -200 moneyline, even against Kansas’ historic home-court edge. With Iowa State riding a 16-game winning streak and Kansas dropping two of its last three (despite the wild comeback vs. TCU), recent form clearly tilts toward the visitors. Both teams enter with their primary rotations intact after earlier leg issues for Tamin Lipsey and Darryn Peterson, so there’s no major injury discount propping up the favorite. Iowa State’s veteran core of Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic now returns to Lawrence after Jefferson’s 3-for-13, 11-point struggle in last season’s road loss here, and his leap into Wooden watch-list territory is a key swing factor against a Kansas group powered by Peterson, Tre White and Flory Bidunga. With market metrics putting Iowa State’s win probability only a bit below the -200 implied range, the edge is modest but real, so I grade this moneyline play a **B** for solid likelihood with only middling value at the current price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:08

Kansas’ recent shootouts, highlighted by the 104–100 overtime win over TCU, steer me toward the Over 146.5 (-110) on this total. Iowa State has been scoring in bunches during its undefeated run, dropping 83 on Oklahoma State, while Kansas has played faster and more guard-driven since Peterson returned to form, pushing their recent Big 12 scores comfortably into the 150s and beyond. With no key scorers sidelined on either side, you’re getting the full offensive arsenals: Iowa State’s Jefferson–Lipsey–Momcilovic trio against a Kansas perimeter featuring Peterson, Melvin Council Jr. and White, plus Bidunga as a high-efficiency rim finisher. Last year’s 69–52 grinder in this building landed miles under this number, but that matchup featured different Jayhawk personnel and a less polished Cyclone offense, whereas this season’s combined averages for scoring and total possessions point closer to the low 150s. Because both defenses are still elite enough to drag this into a half-court war if whistles tighten, I like the Over but only enough for a **B-** grade on risk/reward. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:08

Darryn Peterson’s late-game shot-making and Kansas’ long-term dominance in Allen Fieldhouse have me taking the Jayhawks +3.5 (-110) against the spread. Iowa State’s 16-game heater and No. 2 ranking meet a Kansas team that is wobbling at 1-2 in the league but historically excellent after losses under Bill Self, which typically keeps home efforts razor sharp rather than collapse-prone. With both rosters healthy, Kansas can deploy a deep, physical rotation—Peterson, White, Council and Bidunga—to trade blows with Iowa State’s Jefferson, Lipsey and Momcilovic, reducing the likelihood of a double-digit Cyclone runaway. The last time these programs met in Lawrence, Kansas comfortably covered in a 69–52 win as Jefferson labored through that 3-of-13 night, and Self’s 12-2 home mark versus AP top-five teams (including 4-0 vs No. 2) suggests the Phog often narrows talent gaps into one-possession finishes. Since I still lean Iowa State to eke out a close win but view more than a single possession as generous to a desperate, high-ceiling home dog, I grade Kansas +3.5 as a **B+** for combining solid cover probability with attractive payoff relative to the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:08