Iowa State vs Cincinnati

Joshua Jefferson and Iowa State roll into Fifth Third Arena coming off their first loss of the season after a 16-game winning streak, facing a Cincinnati squad that just snapped a three-game skid with a much-needed home win over Colorado but is still hovering around .500. With Jefferson leading an offense that ranks among the nation’s most efficient and balanced, and Tamin Lipsey backcourt stability intact, the Cyclones’ depth and two-way profile stand in stark contrast to a Bearcats team missing key creators like Kerr Kriisa (shoulder) and Jalen Haynes (knee), leaving more burden on Day Day Thomas, Baba Miller and Jizzle James. Iowa State also handled Cincinnati by 20 in last year’s Big 12 tournament, and with the Bearcats’ backcourt still thinned and their season-long struggles against quality competition, laying the heavy juice on the Cyclones’ moneyline is more about reliability than value, worthy of a **B** grade for high win probability but modest payout. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:50.

Cincinnati’s shorthanded offense, missing floor general Kerr Kriisa and interior scorer Jalen Haynes, has already labored to score against Big 12 defenses, and now runs into an Iowa State group allowing barely over 64 points per game with top-10 defensive efficiency and a recent trend of low-possession, low-scoring road contests. The Bearcats themselves defend at a high level and have been one of the strongest Under teams in the country, with the total staying below the number in the vast majority of their games, while Iowa State’s recent stretch has also leaned heavily Under, including four of their last five overall and consistently on the road. Given both sides’ strong rebounding, Cincinnati’s limited backcourt depth, and the Cyclones’ recent offensive wobble in their loss at Kansas, a grind-it-out tempo and a total below 141.5 align with both matchup logic and season-long trends, making the **Under 141.5** an **A-** grade recommendation for likelihood and value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:50.

Iowa State’s frontcourt trio of Jefferson, Blake Buchanan and Milan Momcilovic already bullied Cincinnati in last year’s 76–56 Big 12 tournament win, and they now face a Bearcats team that, while tough defensively and coming off a confidence-boosting victory over Colorado, is still without key contributors Kriisa and Haynes and has struggled to generate efficient half-court offense during its uneven 9–8 start. The Cyclones have been merely average against the number lately, but their season-long +22 scoring margin, superior depth, and pressure defense against a thin Cincinnati backcourt suggest that sustained runs are more likely to come from Iowa State, even in a hostile Fifth Third Arena environment. With the spread sitting at -6.5, there is some risk of a backdoor cover in a lower-paced game, but the matchup edges in health, shot creation and defensive turnover pressure lean toward a road win by multiple possessions, so Iowa State -6.5 earns a **B** grade for a solid but not elite combination of edge and price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 09:50.