Iowa State vs Baylor

Iowa State’s 14-game winning streak and perfect 14-0 start face a Baylor squad that just had its four-game run snapped at TCU but remains 8-0 at home, creating a classic strength-on-strength clash for this moneyline. With Iowa State still largely healthy outside of guard Mason Williams’ season-long hip absence, and Baylor missing key rotation size in Maikcol Perez and Mayo Soyoye while also dealing with frontcourt uncertainty around Juslin Bodo Bodo and backcourt questions on JJ White, the Cyclones bring more continuity to the floor. Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson, and Tamin Lipsey headline an offense averaging close to 90 points per game while anchoring an elite defense that allows barely over 60, and Momcilovic has already burned Baylor once with 15 points in last season’s 74–55 rout that extended Iowa State’s strong recent run in the series. Against a Bears team built around Cameron Carr’s high-usage scoring and Michael Rataj’s work on the offensive glass but still searching for defensive consistency, Iowa State’s balance and form justify laying the -225 moneyline even on the road, though the price caps the upside, making this a solid but not spectacular value play: Grade B. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:39

Baylor’s gaudy offensive numbers and earlier scoring streak run into an Iowa State team riding that 14-game heater largely because it drags opponents into low-60s nights, and TCU’s recent 69–63 win over the Bears showed how quickly this matchup profile can sink below an inflated total. Significant depth hits for Baylor — with Perez done for the year, Soyoye and Andre Iguodala II redshirting, and Bodo Bodo plus White either out or at least not fully dependable — shorten Scott Drew’s rotation and can nudge pace and efficiency down over 40 minutes, especially against a deep, physical Cyclones group. Iowa State’s offense, led by the Momcilovic–Jefferson–Lipsey trio and a spread pick-and-roll game, is too good to expect a rock fight, but its defense, which already held Baylor to just 55 in last season’s 74–55 meeting and has smothered most opponents this year, tends to turn big Big 12 showdowns into grindier half-court affairs than their raw scoring averages suggest. With both sides aware of the stakes early in league play and Iowa State’s ability to control tempo when it avoids turnover issues, the lean is to the Under 155.5, but Baylor’s offensive ceiling and home shooting environment add volatility, so this sits as a modest-value play rather than a strong edge: Grade C+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:39

Milan Momcilovic and Iowa State not only arrive on a 14-game tear but also come off last season’s 19-point dismantling of Baylor, evidence that the Cyclones’ physical defense and versatile scoring wings have already solved this matchup once, while the Bears enter Waco off a deflating loss that exposed how fragile their defense can look when the shots stop falling. Even with the home crowd behind a Baylor team that’s been perfect in Foster Pavilion so far, the combination of shorthanded depth in the frontcourt, questions about guard health, and reliance on Cameron Carr’s shot-making places a heavy burden on a roster facing an Iowa State group that has covered consistently in this head-to-head, including a 10–0 ATS run in the last ten meetings. Jefferson’s playmaking from the four, Lipsey’s on-ball defense and late-game decision-making, and a deep supporting cast that can switch and contest across positions all point toward Iowa State being better built to win by multiple possessions even if Baylor’s offense pops for stretches. Laying -4.5 on a road favorite in this building is never without risk, but the on-paper gap in defensive resistance and overall form makes Cyclones -4.5 at -120 a slightly plus-expected-value side with moderate confidence: Grade B-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/01/2026 09:39