Iowa vs Minnesota

Iowa’s senior guard Bennett Stirtz is piloting a 12-2 Hawkeyes team on a three-game heater after double-digit wins over UMass Lowell and UCLA, and that recent form combined with a largely healthy rotation makes them the safer moneyline side despite Minnesota’s own four-game streak and 8-0 home record. The Hawkeyes’ revamped roster, loaded with Stirtz, Tavion Banks and Alvaro Folgueiras, has already produced multiple blowouts while Minnesota is winning through a thinner backcourt after losing starting point guard Chansey Willis Jr. and center Robert Vaihola for the season, forcing heavy usage for Cade Tyson and Isaac Asuma. Last year’s Minnesota road win in Iowa City snapped a six-game Hawkeye series streak, which should sharpen Iowa’s focus in this first rematch under Ben McCollum, but laying -300 on a still-unproven road team (0-2 away to date) caps the value even if the win probability is solidly in Iowa’s favor, so I grade this moneyline as a B-level play rather than a smash. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/01/2026 09:48

Minnesota’s offense with Cade Tyson, Isaac Asuma and Langston Reynolds has quietly turned the corner, hanging 78 on Campbell, 89 on Texas Southern and 84 on Northwestern during their current four-game win streak, while Iowa’s attack has gone 90, 94, 74 and 91 in its last four, suggesting more of an up-and-down game than this 129.5 total implies. The Gophers’ injury-depleted depth chart — with Willis and Vaihola out and B.J. Omot limited — has pushed Medved toward smaller, more perimeter-oriented lineups that score more easily but struggle to keep teams off the glass, which plays into Iowa’s efficient half-court execution under McCollum. Add in that last season’s meeting in Iowa City reached 139 points despite a slower tempo, and with both sides now leaning on high-usage perimeter playmakers (Stirtz for Iowa, Tyson for Minnesota) rather than grinding post battles, the Over offers better value than the Under even if Big Ten officiating and late-game variance always introduce some risk, so I grade Over 129.5 at a B+. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/01/2026 09:48

Minnesota’s home dominance — 8-0 at Williams Arena and riding a four-game overall win streak capped by an 84-78 road comeback at Northwestern — makes the Golden Gophers catching +6.5 particularly attractive against an Iowa team that is 0-2 away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena so far. Even with a shortened rotation due to season-ending injuries for Chansey Willis Jr. and Robert Vaihola (and ongoing questions around Omot and Chance Stephens), the Gophers have been covering numbers behind Tyson’s Big Ten–leading scoring, Asuma’s improved creation and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson’s physical presence on the glass, which helped fuel that upset of No. 22 Indiana and their recent dominance of mid-major opponents. Iowa’s high-end shot-making from Stirtz and its depth advantage mean the Hawkeyes are still the rightful favorites, but last year’s Minnesota road win in Iowa City showed how this matchup can tighten late, and with Iowa paying a premium to win by multiple possessions in a hostile gym, I prefer Minnesota +6.5 at -125 as a B-grade value side that can stay inside the number even in an Iowa win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 06/01/2026 09:48