Iowa vs Purdue

Purdue’s Braden Smith has this offense rolling into Mackey with a seven-game winning streak and an 11-1 mark in games decided by double digits, while Iowa arrives on a two-game skid and still searching for its first true road win at 0-3. With the Hawkeyes missing guard Peyton McCollum (foot) and just coming off a week of illness concerns, their backcourt depth behind Bennett Stirtz looks thinner than ideal against a veteran Purdue group that’s 9-1 at home. The Boilermakers have dominated this series in West Lafayette (65-22 all time) and Matt Painter is 13-1 in his last 14 home meetings with Iowa, helped by Smith’s strong history in the matchup (16.5 points and 6.5 assists per game on 58.5% shooting in four contests). Given Purdue’s 86.4 points per game and efficiency edge against an Iowa team that has struggled to play from behind on the road, I’m backing Purdue on the moneyline despite the steep -650 price, viewing it as a high-confidence play with solid—but not massive—monetary upside. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:37

Iowa’s defense has posted elite season-long numbers (61.7 points allowed per game), but their recent losses to Minnesota and Illinois featured long stretches chasing double-digit deficits, and now they face a Purdue offense scoring 86.4 per night and shooting over 53% in five straight home games. With Peyton McCollum sidelined, Bennett Stirtz is being asked to carry even more creation load, which has led to high-usage games and plenty of possessions, while Tavion Banks and Alvaro Folgueiras add efficient secondary scoring that can punish a defense overhelping on ball screens. On the other side, Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn (averaging a double-double), and Oscar Cluff (nearly a double-double) give Purdue four double-figure options, and Smith has historically shredded Iowa with his shooting and playmaking, which, combined with Mackey’s fast pace and frequent free throws from Purdue’s physical frontcourt, points toward both teams living in the mid-70s. With the total sitting at 142.5 and both attacks trending more dangerous than their raw defensive numbers suggest, I lean to the Over at standard juice, grading it as a solid but not elite value spot. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:37

Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz will need a special night to keep this inside the number, as the Hawkeyes come in 0-3 in true road games and off back-to-back losses, while Purdue has won seven straight overall and is 11-1 in games decided by 10 or more points. The Hawkeyes are generally strong against the spread and have covered well as big underdogs this season, but with McCollum out and the roster still recovering from recent illness, their ball-handling depth and late-game legs are real concerns against Purdue’s relentless pressure from Smith and its physical front line of Kaufman-Renn and Cluff. Historically this matchup has tilted heavily toward blowouts in Mackey, with Purdue owning a four-game winning streak over Iowa and a 98-78 edge all-time (65-22 at home), and Smith’s past success vs. the Hawkeyes (16.5 points and 6.5 assists on 58.5% shooting in four meetings) suggests Iowa will again struggle to keep him out of the lane. Laying -10.5 at -118 is a touch aggressive versus an Iowa team that can score in bunches, but given Purdue’s home-court dominance, recent form, and matchup advantages in size and guard play, I’m willing to ride the Boilermakers to clear this spread and grade the wager as a decent, if not premium, investment. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 14/01/2026 09:37