Iowa vs Michigan State

Michigan State’s frontcourt trio of Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Coen Carr has already punished quality opponents on the glass and at the rim, and that size edge looms large against an Iowa group playing its first true road game after a 7-0 start. Michigan State is also 7-0, owns multiple ranked wins, and brings one of the country’s stingiest defenses (around 62 points allowed, strong rebounding margin) into a Breslin Center where it has yet to lose this season, while Iowa’s hot offense has largely been built at home. With both teams essentially healthy and Spartans guards Jeremy Fears Jr. and Kohler having already torched Iowa in last March’s 91–84 win in Iowa City, the combination of home court, defensive ceiling and continuity tilts this toward laying the heavy price on the Spartans’ moneyline despite modest value at -335, good enough for a B-grade recommendation. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:37am

Iowa’s offense, built around ironman guard Bennett Stirtz and efficient secondary scoring from Alvaro Folgueiras, is averaging well into the 80s on 50%+ shooting, while Michigan State is in the high 70s with elite ball movement and a dominant offensive rebounding profile, so a total of 135.5 sits notably below their combined season scoring averages. Both teams enter on long winning streaks, and although Michigan State’s defense and home pace can slow games, Iowa’s methodical but highly efficient attack (top-tier offensive efficiency, strong three-point shooting from Stirtz) plus the Spartans’ history of high-scoring second halves in this matchup suggest that late-game foul shots and shot-making can nudge this one past the number even with two solid defenses. Recent series meetings have produced multiple games in the 140s and 150s, and with no major rotation injuries suppressing minutes for stars like Stirtz and Fears, the Over 135.5 at -110 gets a cautious B- grade on the strength of efficiency and late-game scoring volatility. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:37am

Stirtz and the Hawkeyes come in at 7-0 with a 6-1 ATS mark, leaning on veteran guard play, balanced scoring from Folgueiras and Cam Manyawu, and a deliberate style that shortens games and has already produced upset-type wins in neutral-site settings, which tends to keep margins tight. Michigan State has been terrific at 7-0 with a 4-3 ATS record, powered by Fears’ playmaking and Kohler’s interior dominance, but recent history shows Iowa covering the number in most of the past 10 meetings, including multiple close losses in East Lansing, and Tom Izzo’s defense often invites late backdoor cover opportunities when protecting a lead. With both sides healthy, the Spartans’ size and home-court edge justify them as favorites, yet Iowa’s perimeter shooting, turnover control, and experience dealing with this core—after Kohler and Fears hurt them in last season’s 91–84 loss—make +6 at -110 an appealing value side, strong enough for a B+ grade even while expecting Michigan State to escape with the outright win. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:37am