Iowa vs Iowa State

Iowa State enters this Cy-Hawk clash on a nine-game winning streak and unbeaten at 9-0, steamrolling Purdue, Creighton, and Syracuse by double digits and outscoring opponents by roughly 30 points per night behind the veteran core of Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson, and a deep rotation confirmed on the current roster. Iowa, meanwhile, has started 8-1 but has already shown its ceiling against top competition with a blowout road loss at Michigan State and an offense that recently managed just 52 and 59 points in back-to-back outings before bouncing back versus Maryland, with only Bennett Stirtz averaging more than 8.8 points per game. Hilton Coliseum has been a graveyard for Hawkeye hopes, with Iowa just 1-10 straight up in its last 11 trips to Ames, and while the Cyclones will be without guard M. Williams (hip) and Iowa lists freshman forward Trey Thompson as questionable, both teams otherwise bring intact rotations into this rivalry tilt. With Iowa State owning one of the country’s most efficient offenses and an elite defense, plus a 4-0 home mark and dominant ATS profile, I’m laying the massive price and backing Iowa State at -1115 on the moneyline as a high-safety, low-upside play that earns an A- grade for likelihood but is best suited as a parlay anchor rather than a standalone wager. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:37am

Iowa’s offense has been volatile but generally productive at nearly 80 points per game with a 5-4 record to the over, while Iowa State brings a turbocharged attack averaging in the mid-90s with top-tier efficiency metrics, shooting about 55% from the field and 44% from three and sitting near the top of KenPom’s offensive and defensive rankings, all of which pushes projected scoring well north of the current 143.5 total. The Cyclones have gone over in six of nine thanks to their pace, spacing, and multiple playmakers — notably Lipsey as a table-setter and Momcilovic as a go-to scorer — and Iowa’s recent over trend in non-conference and Big 12 matchups suggests the Hawkeyes are comfortable playing faster when not completely smothered by a physical Big Ten defense, even if they’ve trended under in most true road games. Historical meetings in this rivalry have produced solid offensive numbers on both sides, and with Iowa State favored by double digits, a likely game script features the Cyclones pushing tempo at home and Iowa chasing from behind with Stirtz, Tavion Banks, and Cam Manyawu forced into an aggressive, three-heavy approach that can spike late scoring. Respecting Iowa State’s elite defense and the emotional nature of this rivalry but leaning on the combined offensive profiles and recent totals data, I like Over 143.5 at -110 with a solid but not elite B grade, acknowledging some downside if the Hawkeyes’ attack again stalls against a top-tier unit. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:37am

Milan Momcilovic and the Cyclones have been a bettor’s friend at 7-1-1 against the spread, riding that nine-game winning streak and routinely winning by 20-plus behind a balanced lineup featuring Lipsey’s playmaking, Jefferson’s rebounding, and Blake Buchanan’s interior presence, yet the market has clearly inflated Iowa State after the Purdue demolition, pushing this rivalry line to -12.5. Iowa is hardly a pushover at 7-2 ATS, with four wins in its last five games and an offense that, when clicking, can score in bunches around Stirtz, Banks, and Manyawu, and history suggests the Hawkeyes can at least stay competitive on the number even when they lose outright, as they’re 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-heads despite going just 1-10 straight up in their last 11 visits to Hilton. With Iowa’s main injury concern focused on freshman forward Trey Thompson (questionable) and Iowa State missing guard M. Williams, neither roster appears severely compromised, and with both teams only nine games into the season, this matchup is more about rivalry pride and profile-building than any concrete postseason seeding implications. Given Iowa State’s superior talent, depth, and home-court edge, I still expect the Cyclones to win, but against such a fat spread in a rivalry game, I’ll grab Iowa +12.5 (-110) with a B- grade, counting on late-game variance or backdoor scoring to keep the final margin inside the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 11/12/2025 09:37am