Indiana vs Michigan

Michigan’s 16-1 record, current two-game win streak and dominant home form at Crisler (7-1, with multiple double-digit wins) make the Wolverines the clear moneyline side at -2000 against an Indiana team that has dropped three straight and slid to the middle of the Big Ten pack.([mgoblue.com](https://mgoblue.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2025-26?utm_source=openai)) Indiana’s rotation is still thinned by issues for depth pieces like Josh Harris and Jason Drake, while Michigan’s only notable absence is redshirting freshman Ricky Liburd, leaving Dusty May free to lean on a deep core of Elliot Cadeau, Nimari Burnett, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. at close to full strength.([on3.com](https://www.on3.com/teams/indiana-hoosiers/news/indiana-basketball-game-preview-michigan-state-key-storyline-injury-report-how-to-watch/?utm_source=openai)) Indiana has yet to win a game as a moneyline underdog this season, while Michigan is nearly flawless when favored, and the Wolverines also bring clear matchup edges in size, rim protection and offensive efficiency that have already produced comfortable wins over comparable Big Ten opponents.([fanduel.com](https://www.fanduel.com/research/michigan-vs-indiana-college-basketball-predictions-odds-picks-best-bets-for-1-20-2026?utm_source=openai)) That said, with an implied win probability north of 95% and a tiny payout relative to risk, this recommendation is about security rather than value, so backing Michigan on the moneyline at -2000 earns only a C+ grade despite being very likely to cash. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 09:37

Indiana’s three-game losing streak has been defined by second-half scoring droughts and turnover-fueled collapses, while Michigan’s recent wins have come with a slightly slower tempo and improved half-court defense even as the Wolverines still average over 90 points per night.([btpowerhouse.com](https://www.btpowerhouse.com/bt-power-rankings/28650/week-11-2025-26-big-ten-power-rankings-indiana-falls-college-basketball-standings-league-projections-purdue-illinois-michigan-state-maryland-indiana-rutgers?utm_source=openai)) Despite those gaudy season scoring numbers, both teams’ totals profiles lean away from such an inflated number: Michigan is just 7-10 to the Over, Indiana sits at 9-9, and the 163.5 line has failed to be cleared in the last 17 Indiana road games, in most recent Michigan contests, and in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these programs.([covers.com](https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/ncaab/matchup/370409?utm_source=openai)) Indiana’s backcourt injuries and short bench (with Harris, Drake and Rayford all on the report) have contributed to visible late-game fatigue, while Michigan’s depth allows Dusty May to rotate freely and potentially empty the bench if this turns into a blowout, both of which tend to deflate scoring in the final minutes.([on3.com](https://www.on3.com/teams/indiana-hoosiers/news/indiana-basketball-game-preview-michigan-state-key-storyline-injury-report-how-to-watch/?utm_source=openai)) With market totals at some books already ticking a bit lower and this matchup historically landing well under this threshold, Under 163.5 at -125 grades out as a B+ pick: not risk-free in a game featuring explosive shooters, but offering a solid combination of probability and price compared with the alternative. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 09:37

Tucker DeVries and Lamar Wilkerson have carried a heavy offensive load for Indiana, but recent tape shows that their usage and minutes spike coincide with the Hoosiers’ late-game collapses, including the 81-60 loss at Michigan State where they were outscored 28-7 over the final 11 minutes and decisively beaten on the glass.([si.com](https://www.si.com/college/indiana/basketball/indiana-basketball-tucker-devries-healthy-injury-update-lamar-wilkerson-conor-enright?utm_source=openai)) That trend now runs into a Michigan team that has been destroying opponents at Crisler behind a massive frontcourt of Mara, Johnson Jr. and Lendeborg, plus attacking guards like Cadeau and Burnett, contributing to a 16-1 overall record and strong home ATS results, while Indiana is just 1-3 straight up on the road and below .500 against the number.([mgoblue.com](https://mgoblue.com/sports/mens-basketball/schedule/2025-26?utm_source=openai)) Indiana’s backcourt injury list and reliance on a shortened rotation increase the risk of another second-half fade against Michigan’s depth and physicality, and last season’s narrow 70-67 Wolverine road win came with a less explosive roster than the one that now ranks among the nation’s most efficient offenses.([on3.com](https://www.on3.com/teams/indiana-hoosiers/news/indiana-basketball-game-preview-michigan-state-key-storyline-injury-report-how-to-watch/?utm_source=openai)) Laying -15.5 at -125 is never comfortable in a conference game because of backdoor-cover risk if Michigan pulls starters late, but the combination of current form, matchup edges and home-court advantage still makes Wolverines -15.5 a B-grade play that I expect to cover more often than not, albeit with moderate rather than elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 20/01/2026 09:37