Indiana vs Michigan State

Michigan State rides a dominant home stretch into this one, stacking a 9–1 home mark and a five-game home winning streak against an Indiana squad that just squandered a 16-point lead to Nebraska but had won four of its previous five. With Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, Jeremy Fears Jr. and the rest of the core all active per the latest ESPN roster data—and only forward Kaleb Glenn sidelined long-term—the Spartans’ continuity and size contrast with a Hoosiers rotation that may again be without depth pieces Jason Drake and Josh Harris and is already missing guard Jordan Rayford. Layer on Indiana’s long-term struggles at Breslin (just three wins in its last 20 trips) and Michigan State’s top-tier efficiency on the defensive end, and laying roughly -333 on the moneyline becomes a high-confidence but low-upside way to back the superior home side. I grade this Michigan State moneyline play a B: strong likelihood of cashing, but limited payout ceiling for the risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:37

Indiana’s offense, driven by roughly 20 points per game from Lamar Wilkerson and multiple other double-figure scorers, has already produced fireworks like the 113-point outburst against Penn State and an 83–77 shootout with Nebraska, and now it faces a Michigan State team that shoots efficiently at home and is 11–2 against winning opponents. While the Spartans’ profile has skewed Under overall—with a 5–11 O/U mark fueled by their elite field-goal defense—the combination of Indiana’s 48%-plus shooting, top-70 three-point clip and willingness to let it fly, plus Michigan State’s ability to punish the offensive glass, suggests plenty of possessions and quality looks on both sides. The market total of 142.5 at standard -110 sits just below recent combined outputs for these offenses, and with both sides relatively healthy outside of role-player absences like Kaleb Glenn and Indiana’s back-end rotation injuries, I lean to the Over hitting in a game that nudges into the mid-140s. I grade Over 142.5 (-110) a B-: solid edge with some risk that Michigan State’s defense drags the tempo down just enough to flirt with the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:37

Lamar Wilkerson’s shot-making gives Indiana a puncher’s chance to hang inside the number—his 44-point eruption against Penn State and 32 in the Nebraska loss show how quickly the Hoosiers can erase deficits—and this has translated into a 6–4 ATS mark against Michigan State over the last 10 meetings, including a cover as double-digit dogs in a four-point loss at Breslin last season. Michigan State’s 9–1 home record and current form make them rightful favorites, but Tom Izzo’s group plays at a controlled pace, struggles with turnovers and often wins through defensive efficiency rather than pure blowouts, which can make laying a full -7 at around -110 uncomfortable against an Indiana team shooting 48.0% from the field and 36%-plus from deep. With Indiana potentially short a couple of depth pieces but still deep in perimeter shooting, and the Spartans missing multi-tool forward Kaleb Glenn, I like the Hoosiers’ offense just enough to grab the +7 and trust they can keep this in the two-possession range even if Michigan State ultimately protects home court. I grade Indiana +7 (-110) a B-: a worthwhile underdog position with decent value but real downside if Spartan size and defense overwhelm IU’s guards. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 09:37