Illinois vs Ohio State

Illinois rides into Columbus with a 7-2 mark built against a brutal schedule and fresh off a 75–62 win over Tennessee that highlighted both Kylan Boswell’s control of the offense and the Illini’s top-20 defensive efficiency, while Ohio State counters at 7-1 with a six-game home winning streak and a blistering attack led by Bruce Thornton and emerging interior force Brandon Noel. With Ty Rodgers still sidelined by a knee injury and reserve big Jason Jakstys working back from a concussion, Illinois isn’t at full strength, but the core of Boswell, Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic, Keaton Wagler and Tomislav Ivisic is intact per the latest roster, and this group has already handled multiple ranked opponents; Ohio State’s primary rotation of Thornton, Noel, Christoph Tilly, John Mobley Jr. and Devin Royal is similarly healthy, though transfer big Josh Ojianwuna’s availability remains a question. Illinois has won four of the last five in this series, including last season’s 87–79 victory, and is 6-1 this year as a moneyline favorite, while Ohio State is just beginning Big Ten play despite a perfect 6-0 home record; in an early-season matchup without direct postseason elimination stakes, the Illini’s combination of depth, size, and proven performance against elite competition nudges their -190 moneyline into “take the favorite” territory, even if the price is a bit steep for value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:45am

Ohio State’s offense, powered by Thornton’s 20.1 points per game and a team field-goal mark above 53%, looks tailor-made for overs on paper, but Illinois’ profile—a top-tier defense holding opponents under 40% shooting and a 2-7 record to the under so far—suggests that a Big Ten grinder is more likely than a track meet at this lofty 157.5 total. Illinois has played only one true road game yet comes in off a 75–62 neutral-site win over Tennessee that stayed well under, while Ohio State’s recent 86–82 win at Northwestern did land in the 160s but relied heavily on paint dominance from Noel rather than a breakneck pace; last season’s 87–79 Illini win over the Buckeyes finished at 166, but both current defenses are better on the perimeter and on the glass than those versions, and Illinois’ recent injuries to rotation pieces like Ty Rodgers (knee) and Jakstys (concussion) subtly tighten Brad Underwood’s rotation and can slow tempo. Betting markets have already shaded high because these teams combine to average around 177 points per game, yet multiple analytical previews and trend sheets lean to the under given Illinois’ under-heavy record, Ohio State’s ability to defend the three, and the conference’s tendency to bog down in the half court, making Under 157.5 at -110 a slightly plus-value play despite the offensive star power on both sides. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:45am

Ohio State has quietly stacked a 7-1 start with a perfect 6-0 home record, and with Thornton, Noel, Tilly and Mobley Jr. all in rhythm after the Buckeyes’ comeback win at Northwestern, catching +4 at Value City Arena against an Illinois team playing its first true road game of the season looks like the best leverage spot on the board. Illinois is the more battle-tested side—7-2 overall with a 2-2 mark against ranked nonconference opponents—and has controlled this series recently, going 4-1 straight up in the last five meetings including last February’s 87–79 cover, but the Illini are also managing key absences (Rodgers’ ongoing knee recovery and Jakstys’ recent concussion) and still integrating pieces like Mirkovic and Ivisic, which can create choppier stretches of half-court offense in a hostile environment. The Buckeyes have been roughly break-even against the number (4-4 ATS), yet their home dominance, balanced scoring around Thornton’s All–Big Ten-level shot creation, and historical edge in Columbus—where Illinois has dropped 10 of its last 13 trips—suggest that even in a scenario where the Illini’s superior size and depth eke out a narrow win, Ohio State is more likely than not to stay inside this inflated +4 home underdog spread, giving this wager a strong combination of win probability and payout relative to the line. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 09/12/2025 09:45am