Gonzaga vs Alabama

Gonzaga’s 5-0 surge with blowout wins and a dominant Graham Ike–Braden Huff frontcourt meets an Alabama team that’s 3-1, riding a tight win over Illinois after a shootout loss to Purdue, so recent form tilts slightly toward the Zags while still respecting the Tide’s battle-tested schedule. Alabama has welcomed Aden Holloway, Latrell Wrightsell Jr., and Keitenn Bristow back into the rotation but is likely still without high-upside scorer Jalil Bethea following preseason foot surgery, whereas Gonzaga’s primary rotation is intact with only freshman big Parker Jefferson redshirting, giving them more continuity. Key matchup pieces like Ike, who dropped 27 in last March’s NCAA showdown with Houston, and Alabama’s Houston Mallette, who logged big minutes and scoring against Gonzaga during his Pepperdine days, suggest the Zags have more reliable half-court answers if this tightens late. With Gonzaga’s early efficiency, depth, and cleaner health profile, I like Gonzaga on the moneyline at -170, graded a B for solid win probability but only moderate value at this price point. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 11:39am

Alabama’s up-tempo offense, with Labaron Philon, Holloway, Mallette and a deep wing rotation, has pushed them past 90 points multiple times already, but they now face a Gonzaga group that’s 5-0 with an elite early defensive profile and a frontcourt that slows games in the half court more than the Tide’s recent opponents. While both programs have a recent history of shootouts—scoring 173 and 190 points in their last two meetings—the current context includes a healthier, deeper Gonzaga rotation and an Alabama side still missing Bethea, slightly trimming Bama’s top-end shot-making even as Mallette brings prior success against Gonzaga from his WCC days. With Gonzaga allowing under 60 points per game so far and Alabama’s tougher opponents (Purdue, Illinois) keeping totals closer to the 160–170 corridor, 176.5 sits a few possessions too high for a neutral-site game where legs can tighten late. I’m on Under 176.5 at -110, grading it a B+ thanks to the inflated total and Gonzaga’s defensive ceiling, even in a fast-paced matchup. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 11:39am

Graham Ike’s interior scoring and rebounding alongside Huff and a deep, skilled Gonzaga supporting cast has produced consistent double-digit wins so far, whereas Alabama’s 3-1 mark features narrower margins against top-flight opponents, including a four-point win over Illinois and a seven-point loss to Purdue that highlight some late-game volatility. Alabama’s improved health in the backcourt (Holloway, Wrightsell Jr., Bristow all active) offsets Bethea’s continued absence, but Gonzaga arrives essentially at full strength and with a rotation already calibrated by lopsided wins over Texas Southern, Oklahoma, Creighton and Arizona State, suggesting more lineup stability over 40 minutes. Add in Mallette’s familiarity with Gonzaga and the recent 1–1 series split between these programs, and you still arrive at the Zags’ superior balance and efficiency, which I expect to carry them to a two-possession win often enough to justify laying -4. I’ll take Gonzaga -4 at -110 with a B- grade, acknowledging strong basketball reasons to back the Zags but recognizing the real risk that Bama’s shot-making keeps this within a one-possession window. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 24/11/2025 11:39am