Duke vs Stanford

Duke rides a five-game winning streak into Maples Pavilion against a Stanford squad that has taken three of its last five, highlighted by freshman guard Ebuka Okorie’s 36-point eruption in the upset of North Carolina. With the Blue Devils sitting at 16-1 and boasting a top-tier two-way profile (85.8 points per game on 50% shooting while allowing just 65.9) plus ESPN’s matchup predictor giving them roughly a 90% win probability, they justify being heavy -600 favorites, especially after routing Stanford 106-70 in last season’s meeting. Stanford’s frontcourt may again be shorthanded if versatile senior forward Chisom Okpara, who just missed the UNC game with a lower-body issue, is limited or out, while Duke appears largely healthy and led by star freshman Cameron Boozer and wing scorer Isaiah Evans. Given Duke’s superior depth, recent dominance, and coaching continuity, I’m siding with the Blue Devils on the moneyline, but the steep price tag caps this as a Grade B recommendation rather than an elite value play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:18.

Cameron Boozer and Duke’s balanced offense square off with Ebuka Okorie and a confident Stanford attack in a matchup where both teams have been scoring freely, with the Blue Devils averaging 85.8 points and the Cardinal 77.9, and each coming off high-output wins over California and North Carolina, respectively. Stanford’s recent tendency toward shootouts (95-90 vs UNC) and Duke’s track record of piling up points in big spots (106-70 over Stanford last season and multiple recent games in the 80s) point toward a pace and shot quality that support a number in the mid-140s. Even if Stanford’s Chisom Okpara is less than 100%, that likely nudges the Cardinal into smaller, faster lineups built around Okorie, Ryan Agarwal, and Benny Gealer on the perimeter, which can lift possessions and three-point volume more than it hurts scoring. With both teams featuring elite lead options, strong free-throw shooting, and enough defensive volatility to allow runs, I lean to Over 146.5 at -125, though the juiced price and slightly lower market totals elsewhere keep this as a Grade B- rather than a premium edge. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:18.

Stanford welcomes Duke to Maples Pavilion with momentum from the UNC upset and a 14-4 record, and while the Cardinal are clear underdogs, catching +9.5 at home is attractive given their recent form and Duke’s cross-country travel. The Blue Devils’ five-game winning streak and superior efficiency metrics absolutely justify their favorite status, but Stanford has covered against multiple strong ACC opponents lately and leans on Okorie’s 22.9 points per game and senior forward AJ Rohosy’s work on the glass to keep games competitive, even as they navigate Okpara’s injury and mix in minutes for freshman big Oskar Giltay. Duke’s young core led by Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and Patrick Ngongba II has already shown they can dominate, yet in a loud West Coast environment against a Cardinal team that just put 95 on North Carolina and has improved depth across the roster, asking for a double-digit road cover introduces enough variance that I prefer Stanford +9.5 at -120 as a solid, value-conscious Grade B play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:18.