Dayton vs Saint Louis

Saint Louis rides into this matchup on a long winning streak at 20-1 overall and 8-0 in the A-10, while Dayton has slid to 14-7 and 5-3 after three straight losses, which helps explain the hefty -800 moneyline for the Billikens at home. Last season the Flyers did sweep Saint Louis behind big performances from Javon Bennett and Enoch Cheeks, but this year’s Billikens are deeper and more efficient with Robbie Avila orchestrating inside-out offense and strong guard play from Trey Green and Kellen Thames. Dayton is also down a backcourt piece with freshman Jaron McKie out for the season, while Saint Louis carries a clean injury report and remains unbeaten at Chaifetz Arena, tilting the reliability of this spot solidly toward the favorite. I’m backing Saint Louis on the moneyline at -800 and grading it a B+—very high win probability, but the steep price keeps it shy of elite value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/01/2026 09:03

Javon Bennett and the Dayton Flyers offense are putting up 76.7 points per game, and now they face a Saint Louis team averaging a blistering 90.9 with top-tier shooting efficiency across the rotation, which immediately leans this matchup toward a high total environment. Their two meetings last season landed at 134 and 142 combined points, but this year’s Billikens play faster and more offensively than the prior Jimerson–Swope core, with Avila, Green, Kellen Thames and Amari McCottry all scoring in double figures and recent home wins routinely in the high 80s and 90s. With Saint Louis on a long winning run that encourages keeping its foot on the gas and Dayton’s perimeter-driven attack likely forced into chase mode, I like Over 150.5 -120 and grade it a B—supported by current scoring trends, though last year’s lower totals and the high number cap the confidence slightly. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/01/2026 09:03

Robbie Avila’s Billikens have crushed most recent A-10 opponents, winning eight straight league games by an average margin in the mid-teens and clearing double digits against Saint Joseph’s, La Salle, Fordham and Richmond, making the -11.5 number at home feel very much within reach. Dayton, meanwhile, has dropped three in a row to La Salle, Saint Joseph’s and Rhode Island by 3, 7 and 5 points, and even though Bennett, De’Shayne Montgomery and Amaël L’Etang helped the Flyers sweep Saint Louis last season, this version of Dayton is thinner in backcourt depth with McKie out and has struggled in late-game situations on the road. Given Saint Louis’ balanced scoring with six players at 9+ points per game, its unbeaten record at Chaifetz, and its interior edge on the glass through Avila and Dion Brown, I’m willing to lay -11.5 with the Billikens at -120, but I grade it a B- because double-digit chalk against a capable Dayton offense always leaves backdoor risk. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 30/01/2026 09:03