BYU vs Texas Tech

Texas Tech rides a four-game series winning streak over BYU into Lubbock, pairing a 13-4 overall mark (3-1 Big 12) and one of the stronger home moneyline profiles in college hoops with JT Toppin’s current tear of high-usage double-doubles to justify backing the Red Raiders at -175 despite the price. BYU counters with a 16-1 record (4-0 in league play), a five-game winning streak, and an offense driven by AJ Dybantsa’s star-level shot creation, but the Cougars have yet to solve this matchup in the Big 12 era and now face Texas Tech in its toughest environment with interior depth slightly in question after Abdullah Ahmed recently missed time with an undisclosed issue. Between Texas Tech’s historical edge in the series, its elite frontcourt production, and a home court that has produced one of the best win rates in the nation, I lean to the Red Raiders on the moneyline over BYU at roughly +125 and would grade this a B: the win probability is solid in the low-60s, but the -175 price point keeps the value only middling rather than outstanding. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 17:54.([texastech.com](https://texastech.com/news/2026/1/15/mens-basketball-no-15-tech-no-11-byu-set-for-saturday-night-showdown?utm_source=openai))

BYU’s offense and Texas Tech’s shot-making combine for roughly 170 points per game on the season, and with AJ Dybantsa and JT Toppin leading two top-tier attacks that both average north of 80 points while playing through stretch bigs and heavy three-point volume, I’m inclined to play Over 160.5 at -105. Recent form supports a track meet: BYU has been cashing overs away from home, Texas Tech has seen plenty of high-scoring games in Lubbock, and analytic looks around the market project this as one of the day’s more up-tempo, offense-driven Big 12 showdowns, especially with BYU’s perimeter defense allowing a high volume of threes and Abdullah Ahmed still ramping up after missing the TCU game. The total is already inflated, so any prolonged cold spell from deep could sink it, but given the scoring efficiency, foul-drawing profiles, and late-game foul potential on both sides, I’ll take Over 160.5 (-105) and grade it a B-, acknowledging a favorable scoring environment but limited edge over the number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 17:54.([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401827628/byu-texas-tech?utm_source=openai))

BYU’s 16-1 start and respectable 9-8 record against the spread make the Cougars an attractive side catching +3.5 (-115), especially against a Texas Tech team that is just 6-11 ATS despite its 13-4 mark and often wins at home without consistently clearing margins like this. The Red Raiders have owned the recent series with four straight victories, but last season’s 72-67 result in Provo and this year’s efficiency numbers—which in several models tilt slightly toward BYU—both point toward a one-possession game more often than not, particularly with Dybantsa and Robert Wright III capable of late-clock shot-making that travels. If Ahmed is available in some capacity alongside Keba Keita, BYU’s front line should be just sturdy enough to survive Toppin’s interior onslaught and keep things tight deep into the second half, so with projection systems putting Texas Tech’s win probability only in the mid-50s while the spread sits at -3.5, I like the cushion of multiple possessions and grade BYU +3.5 (-115) as a B+ for combining a solid hit rate with meaningful value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 17:54.([sports.betmgm.com](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/ncaab/byu-texas-tech-prediction-odds-picks-jan-17-college-basketball-jaa/))