Baylor vs Iowa State

Iowa State’s four-game winning streak, 20-2 record, and perfect 12-0 mark at Hilton Coliseum—where the Cyclones are routinely winning by double digits—make them overwhelming moneyline favorites against a Baylor group that has steadied with two straight wins but remains just 3-7 in Big 12 play and 2-4 away from Waco. The last meeting in Waco finished 70-60 to Iowa State behind monster nights from Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey, and Baylor now comes into the rematch without defensive anchor Juslin Bodo Bodo for the season and with wing scorer Dan Skillings still nursing a knee issue, thinning their depth against an offense and defense both rated top-20 nationally. With Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou forced to shoulder heavy usage against Iowa State’s swarming guards, the talent and matchup edges still sit squarely with the Cyclones, so the pick is Iowa State on the moneyline at -1800, graded a B because the win probability is extremely high but the price offers limited return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/02/2026 12:37

Baylor’s offense has been explosive at 84.1 points per game, but it now runs into an Iowa State defense allowing just 64.8 per night and already proven capable of holding the Bears to 60 in their first meeting, when the tempo sagged and the Cyclones turned the game into a half-court grind. Iowa State has posted big scoring lines in recent home blowouts like the 97-67 win over Colorado, yet those margins often come from defensive suffocation and depth-driven runs rather than 40 minutes of full-throttle pace, and Baylor’s road splits plus a potentially limited Dan Skillings reduce the odds of the Bears consistently trading buckets. With the Cyclones likely to control possessions through Lipsey and Jefferson, and their no-middle scheme designed to wall off rim attempts, a score landing closer to the low-140s than the mid-150s feels more in line with these profiles, so the lean is Under 151.5 at -120, graded a B- given the strong defensive indicators but some risk that late-game fouling or Baylor shot-making nudges it over. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/02/2026 12:37

Jefferson’s 19-point, 17-rebound demolition of Baylor in Waco, combined with Iowa State’s undefeated and typically lopsided home résumé, suggests the Cyclones are well-positioned to clear a -14.5 number against a Bears squad that has struggled defensively all year and now lacks its best shot-blocker and rebounder in Bodo Bodo. Baylor’s recent two-game surge, highlighted by an 86-67 win over Colorado behind big nights from Yessoufou, Carr, and Obi Agbim, shows they can hang offensively, but their 75 points allowed per game and 2-4 road mark are red flags in a building where Iowa State regularly buries opponents with early runs and waves of depth. If Lipsey controls the tempo again and the Cyclones’ length at every position replicates the defensive clamps from the 70-60 first matchup, a home margin in the high teens is very much on the table, so the recommendation is Iowa State -14.5 at -125, graded a B- due to the volatility of a number this large despite clear matchup advantages. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 07/02/2026 12:37