Arizona State vs Houston

Houston comes in with a 16–1 mark, a 14-game home winning streak at the Fertitta Center, and the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense, facing an Arizona State team that has dropped five of its last six and is still patching together rotations without key wings like Vijay Wallace, Marcus Adams Jr. and Adante Holiman while hoping Bryce Ford is fully back in rhythm. With Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler all returning from last year’s 80–65 win over the Sun Devils (when Sharp poured in 17 points) and Houston sitting at 4–0 in Big 12 play, a straight-up upset by the 10–7, 1–3 Sun Devils would run directly against every recent trend. At -2500 the Cougars’ moneyline is all safety and almost no payout, so while Houston is the clear side to back to win outright, the combination of very high win probability and poor monetary value keeps this recommendation at a B- rather than elite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/01/2026 09:37

Arizona State’s season-long numbers (around 80 points scored and nearly 79 allowed per game) suggest offense-heavy box scores, but against Houston’s methodical, defense-first approach—holding opponents to about 60 points a night and recently dismantling Big 12 foes like Baylor and West Virginia by roughly 25 points per game—tempo and shot quality tend to crater. The Sun Devils are also short several rotation pieces on the wing and in the frontcourt, which thins their scoring depth even if primary creator Maurice Odum (fresh off a 23-point, seven-assist night at Arizona) and rim-protector Massamba Diop keep them competitive for stretches. Last season’s 80–65 Cougar win on the road landed exactly 145 points, and with this year’s matchup in Houston and the Cougars even more comfortable imposing their grinding style at home, Under 145.5 at -125 looks like a solid blend of likelihood and price, worthy of a B+ grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/01/2026 09:37

Emanuel Sharp and the Cougars have routinely turned home Big 12 games into blowouts, combining elite half-court defense with balanced scoring from Sharp, Uzan, Joseph Tugler and impact freshman big Chris Cenac Jr., and they already handled Arizona State by 15 on the road last season when the talent gap was smaller. The current Sun Devils, losers in five of six and undermanned due to long-term absences for Vijay Wallace, Marcus Adams Jr., multiple redshirts in the frontcourt and limited availability for Adante Holiman, now have to survive 40 minutes in one of the toughest buildings in the country where Houston is 118–7 since 2018. While Odum’s shot-making and Anthony Johnson’s expanded role give Arizona State some backdoor-cover potential, the Cougars’ physicality on the glass and their history of stretching margins late make Houston -16.5 at -120 the preferred side, with enough blowout equity to justify a B grade despite the big number. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 18/01/2026 09:37