Arkansas vs Georgia

Georgia's 3-2 mark over its last five, including that 97-95 overtime gut punch against Ole Miss, contrasts with Arkansas’ 4-1 surge capped by a 108-74 demolition of South Carolina, but the Bulldogs’ 10-1 home record and cleaner profile as a favorite keep me on their moneyline side. With no key injuries on either roster and both teams already in the top 25 rather than fighting for their postseason lives, this mid-January spot tilts toward sustainable edges like Georgia’s nation-leading 96.4 points per game, 39.6 rebounds per night and rim protection around Somto Cyril against an Arkansas group that’s just 1-2 away from Fayetteville. Darius Acuff Jr. and Trevon Brazile give Arkansas a genuine puncher’s chance, and the Razorbacks have owned the series 8-2 over the last 10 meetings, but Jeremiah Wilkinson’s 17.8 PPG form plus Georgia’s depth and home-court dominance slightly outweigh that history at this price. With the market implying roughly a 60% win rate and only modest underdog value on Arkansas, I’m backing Georgia on the moneyline at -154 as a solid but not elite B-grade play. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:15 ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/roster/_/id/8/arkansas-razorbacks?utm_source=openai))

Arkansas and Georgia have combined to go 7-3 over their last ten games apiece and are riding 4-1 (Razorbacks) and 3-2 (Bulldogs) stretches with fully healthy rotations, which keeps both elite offenses humming at 90.5 and 96.4 points per game and has pushed this total up to around 182.5 at -110 on each side. Even so, recent context—including Georgia’s coach publicly demanding better defense after the Ole Miss loss, Arkansas’ unsustainably hot 58.9% shooting and 27-assist clinic against South Carolina, and both teams sitting 10-7 to the over—suggests some regression toward slightly more controlled halfcourt possessions, especially if legs get heavy late in a physical SEC grinder. Historically, this matchup has rarely sniffed the mid-180s, with last season’s 68-65 Razorbacks win and an 8-2 Arkansas edge in the series underscoring how game plans can tighten despite explosive guards like Acuff, Wilkinson and Meleek Thomas and both teams’ top-50 tempos. With such a sky-high number, late fouling or overtime always threatens, but the combination of marginal fatigue, defensive emphasis from Georgia’s staff and the possibility of longer, grindier stretches makes Under 182.5 at -110 a slight lean and earns only a B- confidence/value grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:15 ([sports-reference.com](https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/arkansas/men/2026-schedule.html?utm_source=openai))

Darius Acuff Jr. and Arkansas have ripped off a 4-1 run and a 12-5 ATS mark overall, while Georgia enters 3-2 over its last five and just 7-10 ATS, so with both teams reporting clean injury sheets, the Razorbacks catching +2.5 at roughly -110 shapes up as the more attractive side. Arkansas has covered in three of four SEC games and brings top-15 offensive efficiency plus excellent ball security into a building where Georgia leans on transition and volume, meaning the Razorbacks’ ability to limit turnovers can blunt some of the Bulldogs’ home-court chaos. Recent history backs the dog angle too: Arkansas has taken eight of the last ten meetings, including last year’s 68-65 comeback, and their spacing around Acuff, Brazile and Karter Knox should help counter Georgia’s shot-blocking and rebounding edge enough to keep this inside one possession. Georgia’s ability to win outright at home keeps this from an A-range hammer, but in a matchup where the statistical gap is smaller than the perception and key metrics like ATS form, turnover battle and series history lean red, I grade Arkansas +2.5 (-110) as a B+ ticket with meaningful value in a likely one-possession finish. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 17/01/2026 10:15 ([covers.com](https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/NCAAB/matchup/363553?utm_source=openai))