Alcorn State vs Iowa State

Iowa State rides into this matchup on a 7-0 heater, mauling opponents by more than 26 points per night behind a hyper-efficient offense (91.1 PPG on 53% from the field) and a defense holding teams to 65.0 PPG while piling up 11 steals per game. Alcorn State, by contrast, is 1-8 with an 0-8 road mark, giving up 85.7 PPG and losing repeatedly by double digits against high-major competition, which is a brutal profile walking into Hilton Coliseum’s home-court edge. Even with Tamin Lipsey recently battling a groin issue, the Cyclones’ depth around Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic, Blake Buchanan and Killyan Toure has kept their two-way dominance intact, and no major injuries are reported for the Braves. With ESPN’s predictor essentially writing this in as a home win, Iowa State’s moneyline looks like a near lock but offers poor standalone value at -10000, making it best suited as a low-risk parlay anchor, so the recommendation grades out as a B-. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:46am

Alcorn State’s offense has sputtered to just 66.3 points per game while shooting 44% overall, and now it runs into an Iowa State defense that not only limits foes to 65.0 PPG but also speeds up possessions with disruptive pressure and 11 steals a night, which often ends in short, decisive runs rather than sustained back-and-forth scoring. The Cyclones do pour in 91.1 PPG and have recently blown out Syracuse and Stonehill, but their average margin around the mid-20s plus a likely early bench wave in a nonconference mismatch suggests extended garbage time with slower, sloppier possessions. Alcorn has been overwhelmed on the road by high-majors yet typically lands in the 60s or low 70s, and if Iowa State settles in the low 80s to low 90s while throttling the Braves’ half-court sets, the combined score projects closer to the mid-140s than the high 150s. Factoring in Iowa State’s recent injuries in the backcourt and the strong chance Otzelberger manages minutes conservatively before Big 12 play, the Under 151.5 at -112 earns a solid B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:46am

Joshua Jefferson’s 17.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game underscore just how overpowering Iowa State has been during its seven-game winning streak, but covering a massive -40.5 number is a very different task from simply winning comfortably. The Cyclones have throttled quality opponents like Syracuse and Creighton yet still won those by margins in the teens and low 30s, while Alcorn State’s ugly 1-8 record hides the fact that most of its road losses to power opponents have landed in the 20–30 point range rather than true 40-plus blowouts. With Lipsey recently sidelined by a groin issue and Iowa State eyeing long-term health, there’s a strong chance Otzelberger empties the bench early if this gets lopsided, which naturally caps the final margin even if the game is never in doubt. Given Iowa State’s overwhelming talent edge but the historical difficulty of clearing such an extreme number, grabbing Alcorn State +40.5 at -112 is a thin-edge play that I grade as a C+—high variance, but slightly better value than laying the lumber with the favorite. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 03/12/2025 09:46am