Alabama vs Mississippi State

Alabama’s high-octane backcourt of Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway has been carrying an offense that sits among the nation’s best in scoring and efficiency, and even with a two-game skid against ranked Vanderbilt and upset-minded Texas plus frontcourt depth concerns around Aiden Sherrell and long-term absences like Collins Onyejiaka, the Tide’s firepower still profiles better than Mississippi State’s more limited half-court attack. Mississippi State just had a six-game surge snapped in a 24-point loss at Kentucky and has struggled to keep elite guards in front, a worrying sign against Philon’s 20+ points per game and Alabama’s pace. The Tide have also dominated this series with eight straight wins, while Josh Hubbard’s strong individual history versus Alabama has yet to translate into a breakthrough victory, tilting the probability that Alabama simply outscores the Bulldogs even in a hostile Hump environment. Laying -250 on the moneyline isn’t cheap, but with talent edge in the guard room, historical matchup control, and no major fresh injuries on the Mississippi State side, the Crimson Tide straight up still earns an A- confidence grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:15

Josh Hubbard and Labaron Philon headline two of the SEC’s most aggressive perimeter attacks, and when you combine Alabama’s 90-plus points per game with a defense sitting near the bottom of Division I in points allowed and recent shootouts like 96–90 at Vanderbilt and 92–88 vs Texas, the Over 172.5 (-110) immediately comes into play. Mississippi State has shown it can get dragged into track meets too, from its 101–98 overtime win at Texas to the way turnovers fed Kentucky’s 92-point outburst, and the Bulldogs’ size with Achor Achor and Quincy Ballard should generate second-chance points against an Alabama team that often sacrifices defensive balance for pace. At the same time, State’s desire to respond at home after the Kentucky blowout and its recent run of lower-scoring home totals against non-Alabama opponents introduce some volatility, especially if Chris Jans can slow tempo for stretches, which keeps this from elite status. Given the Tide’s top-tier offensive efficiency, three elite guards on the floor, and a total that still roughly matches their recent combined scores, Over 172.5 gets a B- grade for being high-variance but aligned with how Alabama games have been trending. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:15

Mississippi State’s rugged home environment at Humphrey Coliseum and Josh Hubbard’s track record of 20-point outings against Alabama make the Bulldogs +6.5 (-110) an appealing way to fade the Tide’s recent form rather than their overall ceiling. Alabama is just 7–9 against the number this season and comes in on a two-game losing streak in which opposing primary guards (Vanderbilt’s Tyler Tanner and Texas’s Jordan Pope) shredded its shaky defense, while frontcourt question marks around Aiden Sherrell and an already thin big-man rotation add to the risk of giving multiple possessions on the glass to Achor Achor and company. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is 2–1 in SEC play, has stacked several recent home wins, and remains healthy according to the latest injury reports, giving Chris Jans a full rotation to throw at Alabama’s small-ball lineups even if the Tide maintain their long series win streak. With Alabama still more likely to win outright but vulnerable to a tight road finish in a building where five of the last six meetings have been single-digit games, taking the Bulldogs with the points earns a solid B grade. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 13/01/2026 10:15