Arkansas State vs UL Monroe

Arkansas State enters this matchup on a strong five-game winning streak, while UL Monroe has struggled mightily, dropping seven straight. The Red Wolves’ dominant backcourt duo of Taryn Todd and Joseph Pinion has tormented defenses all season, and with Monroe’s porous perimeter defense allowing over 45% shooting from deep in their last four games, Arkansas State should exploit this heavily. Injuries also play a factor here, as UL Monroe’s starting center, Thomas Howell, is questionable with a knee issue, further crippling a team that already lacks depth in the paint. Historically, Arkansas State has claimed victory in six of the last seven head-to-head contests, and with an opportunity to strengthen their conference standing for seeding purposes, expect them to bring maximum intensity. Although the heavy moneyline juice limits the upside, Arkansas State is the clear and overwhelming favorite against a team that has struggled all season. The pick is graded a “B” simply due to the lack of value and the high cost of the wager.

UL Monroe enters this matchup riding a four-game losing streak, struggling offensively while failing to reach 60 points in three of those contests. Arkansas State, on the other hand, is in the middle of a five-game win streak, relying on a defence that has held opponents to 65 points or fewer in four of those victories. Injuries could also factor significantly into the scoring total, as UL Monroe’s leading scorer, Jalen Bolden , remains questionable with an ankle injury that sidelined him last game. Meanwhile, Arkansas State’s balanced attack, led by point guard Caleb Fields, has had mixed results against UL Monroe in past matchups, averaging just 12 points per game in their last three meetings. The Warhawks’ scoring struggles, Arkansas State’s elite defence, and injury concerns all point toward a game unlikely to reach the 149.5 total. While there is some risk given Arkansas State’s offensive capabilities, the combination of these factors makes the under a strong play with solid value.