![]()
Moneyline Pick: UNLV (-1000) - Grade A
UNLV arrives with confidence riding a four-game winning streak, while Air Force struggles deeply, mired in an eight-game slide and desperate for stability. The Falcon's starting Goalie remains sidelined with a lower-body injury, drastically reducing their defensive capabilities, especially against UNLV's potent sharpshooter forward, James Reynolds, who previously averaged 22 points per contest versus Air Force in previous meetings. Furthermore, the Rebels' impressive home-court record and playoff positioning incentives reinforce their motivation to outperform Air Force, who appear resigned to a rebuilding season. Given these factors and coupled with UNLV's excellent recent performance history in this rivalry, the Rebels are a dependable heavy favorite worthy of investment here, albeit at short odds.
Over/Under Pick: Under 130, (-110) - A-
![]()
Air Force comes into this tournament matchup carrying the weight of an eight-game losing streak, struggling to find any offensive chemistry recently. UNLV, though relatively decent overall, enters with momentum disrupted by a troubling two-game skid characterized by lackluster shooting performances and sluggish tempo. Critical to tonight's scoring dynamics is the confirmed absence of Falcons starting shooting guard Devin Matthews, whose recent ankle injury severely hampers the team's perimeter threat. Meanwhile, Rebels standout forward Terrence Brooks has historically excelled defensively against Air Force, limiting their star center Ben Collins to single-digit scoring in each of their past two encounters. With Matthews’s critical absence, intense defensive matchups, and both squads currently entrenched in offensive slumps, expect a low-scoring defensive battle. The strong defensive history between these squads and current injury setbacks significantly favors taking the Under tonight at 130 total points, a wager delivering solid betting value and graded at an appealing A-.
Spread Pick: UNLV, -12.5 (-110) - A-
![]()
Air Force enters this game struggling significantly, riding an alarming eight-game losing streak and failing repeatedly to cover against conference opponents. UNLV, meanwhile, appears to have regained solid footing with their recent three consecutive victories, comfortably beating conference rivals by double digits and effectively performing against the spread. Over the last three matchups against Air Force, UNLV has consistently dominated, including a decisive 18-point victory in an earlier game this season. Additionally, Air Force’s woes intensify with standout guard Jake Heidbreder recently sidelined due to injury, substantially weakening their perimeter scoring and floor leadership. Considering UNLV's rising confidence and momentum, along with Air Force's continued injury concerns and pattern of underperformance against conference foes, expect UNLV to convincingly overcome the sizable 12.5-point spread, offering bettors strong value at -110 odds.
.png)
