Capitals vs Senators

With Ottawa riding a three-game losing streak and still licking its wounds from a 4-1 loss to Columbus, the matchup tilts toward a Washington side that just snapped its own funk by thumping the Rangers 6-3 and sits 3-5-2 over its last 10 but trending upward. The Sens’ crease is a concern: Linus Ullmark is away on personal leave, leaving Leevi Merilainen and Hunter Shepard to handle a Capitals offense that ranks among the league’s better groups in both goals for and goal differential, while Logan Thompson has stabilized Washington with starter-caliber numbers this season. Historically, Ovechkin has torched Ottawa with well over a point per game across his career and recently scored multiple milestone goals in this building, and the current season series is 1-0 Ottawa after a 7-1 Senators rout that should keep Washington’s focus high for this spot. Given Ottawa’s home volatility, missing Ullmark, and Washington’s superior depth and healthier blue line (with only depth defender Cole Hutson listed as day-to-day), taking the plus money on the road side at +118 has enough edge to justify a B+ grade rather than something higher due to Washington’s uneven recent record. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:23

The total at 6 feels a shade low for a matchup where Ottawa’s last 10 games have averaged nearly seven combined goals, Washington’s last 10 have seen them allow 3.5 per night, and the first meeting finished in a 7-1 Senators blowout, all pointing toward another high-event script. The Senators play a loose, offense-first game at home, pairing a top-end power play with a subpar penalty kill, and Ullmark’s absence amplifies the defensive risk behind an already-leaky structure, especially if Merilainen is forced into another high-volume start. On the other side, Washington brings a balanced attack led by Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson, plus a revived Ovechkin and an aggressively shooting Jakob Chychrun from the back end, and both teams’ season-long scoring profiles (roughly 3.2–3.3 goals for per game each) support a number higher than 6. Recent trends between these clubs also lean to the high side, with the Over cashing in the majority of their last several head-to-heads, so Over 6 at -110 earns a B grade: solid expectation of goals, but high variance if Thompson steals it or Ottawa’s replacement goalies overperform. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:23

Given Ottawa’s status as the home favorite despite a three-game slide and Washington’s tendency to keep road games tight (9-7-3 away), grabbing the Capitals at +1.5 on the puckline, even at -210, profiles better than chasing the plus-money Senators -1.5 alternative. The Sens have dropped six of their last eight at home and, without Ullmark, are relying on a tandem that has leaked goals recently, while the Caps now lean on Thompson’s steady play and a veteran-heavy roster that typically manages game state well in one-goal environments. Key matchup history also suggests close contests: Brady Tkachuk has produced consistently against Washington with double-digit career points in 17 games, and Tim Stutzle has been a regular playmaker versus the Caps, but Ovechkin’s long-term dominance of Ottawa and Washington’s deeper defensive group (Carlson, Chychrun, Fehervary, Sandin) counterbalance that edge. With Ottawa already up 1-0 in the season series after a 7-1 blowout, regression toward a one-goal game is a reasonable expectation, so laying the price for Washington +1.5 earns only a B- grade—high likelihood of cashing but modest value because of the heavy juice. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 01/01/2026 09:23