Capitals vs Wild

Kirill Kaprizov rolls into this rematch off a two-goal, 6-2 dismantling of Boston that capped a four-game winning streak for a Wild team now 11-3-4 at home, while the Capitals arrive on a two-game skid after being outscored 8-3 by Carolina and Winnipeg. Minnesota’s active roster still features a dangerous core of Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Vladimir Tarasenko, even with blue-line and depth injuries to Jonas Brodin, Jake Middleton, Mats Zuccarello and Marcus Foligno, whereas Washington is down impact forwards Pierre-Luc Dubois (long-term) and Ryan Leonard and is leaning heavily on Logan Thompson in net. Head-to-head, Minnesota had controlled the series (6-0-1 run) before Washington’s 5-1 home win on October 17 behind Dylan Strome’s four-point night and yet another Alex Ovechkin goal against a franchise he’s piled up 40 points against in 26 games, but the situational edges here swing back toward a healthier Wild top six and their strong home profile versus a banged-up Caps group that’s just 3-3-1 in its last seven. With current form, injury tables and the home/road split all pointing slightly Minnesota’s way, I like the Wild at -120 on the moneyline and grade this wager a B+ for a solid probability edge at a fair price. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:48am

The total sitting at 5.5 with shaded Over at -120 makes sense given how Minnesota is driving offense right now: the Wild have scored 18 goals over their last four games (4, 5, 3 and 6) and are 15-2-2 when they reach three or more, while Kaprizov and Boldy are both in form and supported by an offensively capable back end that now includes Quinn Hughes. Washington’s recent road profile has tilted higher scoring as well, with an 8-goal explosion in San Jose followed by a 6-goal total in Winnipeg, and their power play remains dangerous with Ovechkin, Dylan Strome and John Carlson, especially against a Wild blue line missing key defensive pieces like Brodin and Middleton. Filip Gustavsson has been solid but not airtight historically versus the Caps (3.20 GAA, .906 save percentage), and with Minnesota’s attack humming plus Washington’s ability to punish on the man advantage, there are multiple paths to both teams pushing this into the 6–7 goal range even if goaltending is competent. Juice at -120 isn’t cheap, so I grade Over 5.5 a B-: the scoring environment and injury context favor the Over, but the price shaves some of the value margin. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:48am

Given a Minnesota moneyline lean, the more aggressive way to attack the rematch is the Wild -1.5 puckline at 205, leveraging their tendency to turn home wins into multi-goal results — recent 4-1, 5-2 and 6-2 victories in Saint Paul show how their forecheck and depth can snowball once they’re ahead, even with several regulars out of the lineup. Washington’s underlying form is shakier: they’ve just been routed 5-1 in Winnipeg after a shootout loss to Carolina, they’re missing Leonard’s speed and Dubois’ middle-six play-driving, and their blue line has had trouble handling heavy offensive-zone time against deeper teams, which Minnesota’s current top six (Kaprizov–Eriksson Ek–Johansson, Boldy–Tarasenko, etc.) can certainly generate. While the Caps did crush the Wild 5-1 back in October, that came in D.C. at the end of a hot Washington run; tonight flips venue to an Xcel Energy Center where the Wild have been one of the league’s tougher outs, and if they’re up late, the empty-net script strongly favors the home side to stretch any narrow lead. Because multi-goal results are inherently volatile even in a matchup that leans Minnesota, I grade Wild -1.5 at 205 a C+: a high-variance, correlation play with enticing plus-money upside rather than a core position. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 16/12/2025 09:48am