Capitals vs Kings

With Washington riding a four-game winning streak and Los Angeles on a five-game points streak during a 6-1-3 run, the moneyline comes down to situational edges and depth. The Capitals arrive for the front half of a back-to-back after a cross-country flight, while the Kings are rested at home and eager to avenge their recent 2-1 loss in D.C., where Alex Ovechkin buried the winner and Charlie Lindgren stole it with 30 saves. Washington’s attack is humming (88 goals in 26 games) behind Tom Wilson’s breakout scoring pace and Logan Thompson’s 2.08 GAA, but they are down key centers Pierre-Luc Dubois (out 3–4 months) and Nic Dowd (injured reserve), which quietly erodes their matchup options against Anze Kopitar’s line. Los Angeles hasn’t been dominant at Crypto.com Arena (3-4-3), yet their overall defensive profile (2.60 goals against per game, solid penalty kill) plus the ability to roll Kopitar, Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala and three experienced goalies gives them slightly more ways to win in a tightly priced market. At -120, I like the Kings to grind out a revenge win, but the edge over the implied price is modest, so this is a **B** grade: reasonably strong likelihood with only limited long-term value. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:50am

The first meeting finished 2-1 and there are several signs it could be another low-event night: Washington has trimmed its goals against to 2.65 per game behind a hot Logan Thompson/Charlie Lindgren tandem, while the Kings are at 2.60 allowed with a deep defensive corps headlined by Drew Doughty, Mikey Anderson and Brandt Clarke plus steady goaltending from Anton Forsberg and Darcy Kuemper. Los Angeles leans on structure more than firepower (2.68 goals for per game and a sputtering power play around 14 percent), and they’ve already taken 12 of 25 games beyond regulation, a profile that tends to compress scoring and favor one-goal margins rather than track meets. On Washington’s side, losing Dubois and Dowd narrows their center depth and pushes more defensive responsibility onto Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre, which often translates into conservative, matchup-heavy road game plans, especially with another game in San Jose tomorrow. Even with stars like Ovechkin (13 goals and 11 assists lifetime vs. Los Angeles) and Kopitar/Kempe (strong career production against Washington), both teams’ current form points toward disciplined checking, careful line matching and heavy reliance on special teams and goaltending. Under 5.5 at -105 gets a **B+** grade: a solid blend of probability and price in what projects as another tight, defense-driven contest. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:50am

Given how frequently Los Angeles plays one-goal games and how evenly these teams matched up in the recent 2-1 Capitals win, grabbing Washington at +1.5 on the puckline is a logical way to attack their resilience without needing another outright upset. The Caps are 6-4-1 on the road and come in on a four-game heater powered by a deep committee of scorers — Wilson, Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael — while John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun drive exits that help them survive against heavier forechecks. On the other side, the Kings’ tendency to go beyond 60 minutes in nearly half of their games and their mediocre 3-4-3 home mark suggest that even when they have the better of play, they struggle to pull away, and they may be missing or managing Warren Foegele (day-to-day), which trims some middle-six punch. Ovechkin’s long-track record of production versus Los Angeles, plus Kopitar and Kempe’s own strong histories against Washington, supports the idea that both top ends can trade chances but still stay within a single goal, especially with quality goaltending on both benches. At a price of -267, you’re paying a premium for that cushion, but in a matchup of two structured, goaltending-driven teams that already played to a one-goal margin, the probability of the Caps keeping it within one justifies a **B+** grade despite the limited return. Odds and availability are subject to change. This bet was made at 02/12/2025 09:50am